The Large Variability in Response to Future Climate and Land-Use Changes Among Large- and Medium-Sized Terrestrial Mammals in the Giant Panda Range

TL;DR

The study finds that future climate and land-use changes will affect the habitats of large and medium-sized mammals in the giant panda's range in varied ways.

Contribution

The study introduces a novel approach to assess the combined and modulating effects of climate and land-use changes on species' range shifts.

Findings

All three model configurations projected an average net loss of suitable habitat areas for the 23 species.

Climate change impacts dominated responses for most species, while land-use change impacts were nonsignificant or weak.

Land-use change could amplify or offset some negative effects of future climate change.

Abstract

Understanding and predicting the effects of climate change and land-use change on the range shifts of species is crucial for biodiversity conservation. In this study, we assessed the isolated and combined climate change and land-use change effects, as well as the modulating effect of land-use change within climate scenarios, using a more realistic land-use dataset. We found that there is large variability in the responses of the 23 large- and medium-sized terrestrial mammals in the giant panda range to single or combined effects of future climate and land-use change, as well as the effect of land-use change on climate change projections. These findings should inform more useful dialogue determining the effect of climate change and land-use change on the future distribution of the 23 large- and medium-sized terrestrial mammals in the giant panda range and consequently guide future effective land-based conservation planning.

While climate change and land-use change are known to interact in their effects on species’ range shifts, most studies have only focused on their isolated and combined effects, hindering a comprehensive understanding of their effects on future species distributions. In this study, we assessed the isolated and combined effects of future climate change and land-use change on range shifts of 23 large- and medium-sized terrestrial mammals in the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) range, as well as the impact of land-use change on climate change effects, by comparing projections for three model configurations: (1) dynamic climate and static land-use covariates, (2) static climate and dynamic land-use covariates, and (3) dynamic climate and dynamic land-use covariates. We find that all three types of models projected an average net loss of suitable habitat areas across the 23 mammalian species. Moreover, we find that although there is a large variation in individual species’ responses to both the single climate change and single land-use change, climate change impacts dominate responses for most species, while land-use change impacts were nonsignificant or weak. Finally, the effect of land-use change on climate change projections reveals that land-use change could amplify or offset some of the negative effects of future climate change. These findings highlight that adopting effective land-based conservation management strategies to mitigate the impacts of future climate change on large- and medium-sized terrestrial mammals in the giant panda range is of great urgency and significance, but these strategies should take into account the large variation in individual species’ responses to both climate change and land-use change.

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