# The burden of neurological diseases in G7 countries from 1990 to 2021 and projections for the next 30 years: a Global Burden of Disease study

## TL;DR

This study examines the impact of neurological diseases in G7 countries from 1990 to 2021 and predicts their future burden, highlighting the role of aging and gender differences.

## Contribution

The study provides new projections of neurological disease burden in G7 countries and identifies key demographic and social factors influencing trends.

## Key findings

- Women have higher prevalence rates of neurological disorders, possibly linked to migraines and hormonal changes.
- Mortality rates for men have increased in the US, Japan, and Germany.
- Neurological disease cases are projected to rise due to aging and population growth in G7 countries.

## Abstract

Neurological disorders have become a significant global public health challenge due to their high rates of disability and mortality. This study analyzed epidemiological trends of neurological disorders in G7 countries from 1990 to 2021 based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data and predicted the disease burden for the next 30 years.

Using the Joinpoint regression model and the Nordpred Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, the study evaluated indicators such as incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of neurological disorders. It also analyzed the impact of gender, age, and social factors on the disease burden.

The overall burden of neurological disorders in G7 countries is lower than the global level, but there are significant gender differences. Women have a higher prevalence rate, which may be related to migraine and hormonal fluctuations, while men have more prominent Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature death, except in Japan and Italy. Regarding age distribution, the risk of disease gradually increases for individuals over 10 years old, and the mortality rate rises sharply after 70 years old. The association between aging and neurodegenerative diseases (such as Alzheimer’s disease) is particularly significant. Historical trend analysis from 1990 to 2021 shows that the global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates have remained stable overall. However, male mortality rates have increased significantly in the United States, Japan, and Germany. Predictions for the next 30 years indicate that despite stabilizing age-standardized rates, the number of neurological disease cases in G7 countries will continue to increase due to population growth and aging.

The study untangles the unique challenges faced by G7 countries in preventing and controlling neurological disorders. It emphasizes the need to develop precise intervention strategies that consider age, gender, and social factors, providing valuable insights for developing countries.