# Assessing the potential fire tolerance of conifer saplings in cold and wet environments using a pyro-ecophysiology approach

## TL;DR

This study examines how conifer saplings in cold and wet environments respond to fire, finding that their mortality increases with fire intensity and suggesting new tools for predicting fire impacts.

## Contribution

A new general sapling mortality model is introduced, along with evidence that chlorophyll fluorescence could serve as an early warning indicator of fire-induced mortality.

## Key findings

- Mortality probability in conifer saplings increases sigmoidally with fire intensity.
- Chlorophyll fluorescence transiently recovers before declining, indicating potential early warning signals.
- A new general model for predicting sapling mortality outperforms existing approaches.

## Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter fire return intervals in cold and wet forests in the northwestern United States. This coupled with an expected rise in prescribed fires to restore healthy forests, disproportionately increases risk to saplings of tree species adapted to colder and wetter environments that have low fire resistance. To assess this potential impact, we evaluated the impacts of increasing fire intensity on Picea engelmannii and Thuja plicata sapling physiology, morphology, and mortality. This was achieved using established pyro-ecophysiology experiments where saplings were subjected to controlled surface fires across a range of fire intensities and post-fire growth, physiology and mortality were assessed up to 7 months post-fire.

In this study we demonstrate that the probability of mortality in the saplings of these two conifer species displays a sigmoidal increase with increasing fire intensity. At fire radiative energy dosage levels < 0.6 MJ m−2, the observed mortality in both species was lower than predicted by existing crown scorch-based models due to their limited sensitivity at small diameters. Prior to sapling death, chlorophyll fluorescence transiently recovers before a rapid decline, though the timing varies by species and fire intensity dosage. A new general sapling mortality model derived from 7 conifer species is presented.

Our results provide predictive tools that managers could use to make informed decisions on the potential impacts of fires on conifer saplings growing in cold and wet environments. Results from both species suggest that chlorophyll fluorescence temporal trends could serve as a potential early warning indicator of fire-induced tree mortality, however, future work should explore whether similar responses are observable using remote sensing data from solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and assess potential mechanisms underlying this signal. The general sapling mortality model presented in this paper appears to provide an improved method of predicting conifer sapling mortality over existing approaches, however, research is needed to develop coefficients to adjust the model with tree age and environmental factors. Further studies could also explore whether phenotypic plasticity is driving observed tree responses to fire from plants grown from similar environments.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s42408-025-00443-7.