# Pressure of Invasive Alien Species Trachemys scripta on Native Species Under Future Climate Change Scenarios

## TL;DR

The study predicts how invasive turtles and native species in Turkey will compete for habitats under future climate change.

## Contribution

The study provides ecological niche models for Trachemys scripta and native species in Turkey under future climate scenarios.

## Key findings

- Invasive Trachemys scripta is expected to migrate toward the coast, increasing competition with native species.
- Climate change may cause habitat loss for native species like Emys orbicularis and Mauremys rivulata.
- Monitoring efforts in coastal areas are recommended to mitigate future impacts of invasive species.

## Abstract

Throughout the world, climate change is having many adverse impacts, ranging from the decline of biodiversity to the economic downturn. Increasing temperature will continue to affect microorganisms and ecosystems in a very wide range. In order to mitigate the severity of this irreversible process, it would be helpful to analyze the anticipated scenarios for the coming years. For this purpose, the invasive alien species
Trachemys scripta
and the native species
Emys orbicularis
,
Mauremys caspica
and
Mauremys rivulata
in Türkiye were projected with five different climate models (ACCESS‐CM2, BCC‐CSM2‐MR, CNRM‐ESM2‐1, GISS‐E2‐1‐G, and MIROC6) for the years 2050, 2070, and 2090. Suitable habitat areas, habitat expansions, and habitat contractions of species with climate change were modeled. Based on the results of these models, it appears that habitat expansions in the future will probably result in an increase in competition between native and invasive species. Due to habitat contraction in the west, the
T. scripta
species is expected to migrate toward the coast, which may lead to population declines for
E. orbicularis
and
M. rivulata
, especially along the Mediterranean coast. Furthermore,
M. caspica
, which is distributed in the east, is likely to move toward the western and southern regions due to climate change, where it could compete for habitat with
T. scripta
as it experiences habitat contraction in the north. This suggests that climate change and the impact of invasive species will lead to habitat loss for native species in the future. Considering this data, it is recommended to increase collection and monitoring efforts in coastal areas where the
T. scripta
species is currently densely distributed in order to mitigate the occurrence of this predicted scenario in the future.

In this study, ecological niche models are provided for
Trachemys scripta
and its competing species in Turkey. In 20‐year intervals, the map indicates the future habitat areas suitable for the invasive species as well as its competitors. The results of this study have led to a determination of the regions where invasive species are likely to be distributed in the coming years as a result of climate change.