# Glacier change threatens Central Asia’s water towers

## TL;DR

Glaciers in Central Asia are rapidly shrinking due to climate change, threatening the region's water supply and long-term sustainability.

## Contribution

This study provides new insights into the accelerating glacier retreat and its impacts on water resources in the Tien Shan region.

## Key findings

- Glaciers show widespread and accelerating mass loss with rapid glacial lake expansion.
- High-glacier basins experience increasing runoff, while less-glacierized areas face unstable or declining runoff.
- Glacier retreat reduces cryospheric storage and threatens water resource stability in Central Asia.

## Abstract

Glaciers in the Tien Shan serve as vital “water towers” for Central Asia, but their rapid retreat under climate warming threatens regional water security. This study investigated glacier changes and evaluated their impacts on regional water resources using multi-temporal imagery, integrated with glacier, hydrological, and climatic datasets. Results show widespread and accelerating glacier mass loss, rapid expansion of glacial lakes, and pronounced spatial divergence in runoff responses across basins. The outer mountain ranges experienced particularly strong glacier shrinkage and lake-area growth. Basins with high glacier coverage generally exhibited increasing runoff, whereas less-glacierized basins showed unstable or decreasing runoff, especially where meltwater contributions are approaching peak levels. Overall, these findings demonstrate that glacier retreat compromises the long-term stability and sustainability of Central Asia’s water resources by depleting cryospheric storage, altering hydrological processes, intensifying glacial lake development, and accelerating the shift toward declining water availability after peak melt.

•Glaciers across the TS have experienced widespread and accelerated shrinkage•Glacial changes strongly influence alpine lakes, river runoff, and water storage•Glacier change threatens the stability and long-term sustainability of water resources

Glaciers across the TS have experienced widespread and accelerated shrinkage

Glacial changes strongly influence alpine lakes, river runoff, and water storage

Glacier change threatens the stability and long-term sustainability of water resources

Earth-surface processes; Glacial processes; Glacial landscapes; Hydrology; Remote sensing