# Projected hourly and regional energy demand for power heat and transport in New Zealand to 2050

## TL;DR

This paper provides detailed projections of New Zealand's energy demand by 2050, covering power, heat, and transport at regional and hourly levels.

## Contribution

The paper introduces a comprehensive, transparent dataset for New Zealand's energy demand with multi-sector and multi-scenario analysis.

## Key findings

- Energy demand projections are disaggregated by sector, energy carrier, and technology.
- Five scenarios explore electrification, fuel substitution, and behavioral changes.
- The dataset supports energy system modeling and infrastructure planning.

## Abstract

Projections of energy demand are an essential dataset for analysing transition pathways and long-term investment planning. In New Zealand, however, publicly available datasets remain limited in scope and transparency. Existing studies have focused on electricity, while heat and transport have been only partially addressed. This dataset provides projections of final energy demand for New Zealand to 2050, at five-year intervals. Demand is disaggregated by sector (heat, transport, power), energy carrier (e.g., electricity, gas, liquid fuels), and technology (e.g., vehicles, boilers, heat pumps), and resolved to regional and hourly levels. Five exploratory scenarios capture alternative pathways of electrification, substitution of fossil fuels with biofuels and e-fuels, and behavioural change through shifts in transport modes and the adoption of diverse heating technologies across residential, commercial, and industrial applications. Projections were generated using a hybrid top-down/bottom-up approach informed by official statistics, policy targets, demographic and technical indicators. The dataset is designed for integration into energy system modelling and infrastructure planning, and its structure can be adapted for use in other national contexts.