# Oaks and Climate Change: Contrasting Range Responses of Mediterranean and Temperate Quercus Species in the Western Palearctic

## TL;DR

The study shows how different oak species in Europe and the Mediterranean have responded to past and future climate changes, highlighting the need for tailored conservation strategies.

## Contribution

The paper provides new insights into the contrasting climate responses of Mediterranean and temperate oak species using ecological niche models.

## Key findings

- Temperate and transition-zone oaks contracted during the Last Glacial Maximum and are projected to lose habitat in the future.
- Mediterranean oaks maintained stable ranges historically and are expected to expand northward.
- The results emphasize the need for climate-specific conservation strategies for oak forests.

## Abstract

Over the Quaternary, the geographic distributions of many species have experienced shifts in response to climatic changes. We examined the range‐shift patterns of six oak (Quercus) species occupying different climatic zones of the western Palearctic under both past and future climate conditions. Using ecological niche models, we reconstructed distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~22,000 years before present), compared them to the Present, and projected future changes under two scenarios for 2081‐2100 (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5). Quantitative metrics of latitudinal centroid movement, range limits, and area change revealed consistent contrasts among climatic groups. During the LGM, temperate (
Q. robur
and
Q. petraea
) and transition‐zone (
Q. cerris
and Q. pubescens) species contracted strongly, persisting in southern refugia across Anatolia, the Balkans, and the western Mediterranean, whereas Mediterranean oaks (Q. coccifera and
Q. suber
) retained more stable ranges. Future projections suggest that temperate and transition‐zone species will undergo substantial range loss and poleward shifts, particularly under the pessimistic scenario, whereas Mediterranean oaks will experience limited latitudinal shifts but pronounced expansion in to northern latitudes and temperate regions. These findings indicate Mediterranean oaks are ecologically distinct from temperate and transition‐zone species, which show similar climate sensitivities. Our results emphasize the need for climate‐zone‐specific conservation strategies, including enhancing connectivity and genetic diversity for temperate and transition‐zone species, and prioritizing drought‐resilient populations and adaptive management for Mediterranean species, to support the long‐term resilience of European oak forests under ongoing and future climate change.

We analyzed past and future range dynamics of six oak (Quercus) species across the western Palearctic using ecological niche models, reconstructing distributions for the Last Glacial Maximum, the present, and two future scenarios. Quantitative metrics of centroid shifts, range limits, and area change revealed that temperate and transition‐zone species experienced strong contractions and are projected to lose further habitat, whereas Mediterranean oaks retained stable historical ranges and are likely to expand northward. These findings highlight the ecological distinctness of Mediterranean oaks and emphasize the need for climate‐zone‐specific conservation strategies to enhance the resilience of European oak forests under climate change.