Probabilistic reliability assessment of reservoir-area colluvial landslides considering rotated spatial variability of geotechnical parameters
Haifu Tang, Zhile Xu, Quan Zhao, Licheng Wu, Long Qin

TL;DR
This paper introduces a new method for assessing landslide reliability by considering rotated spatial variability of soil properties, leading to more realistic risk assessments.
Contribution
The novel method uses HRHN with attention mechanisms to account for rotated anisotropic spatial variability in geotechnical parameters.
Findings
The proposed method constructs extreme scenarios for failure probability under reservoir drawdown and rainfall.
The model produces a range of failure probabilities, capturing uncertainty better than traditional methods.
The approach provides a more realistic and comprehensive geotechnical risk assessment.
Abstract
Slope reliability analysis often assumes isotropic or anisotropic random fields with horizontal orientation to characterize the spatial variability of soil parameters. However, this neglects the influence of rotated anisotropic spatial variability, leading to conservative and unrealistic failure probability estimates. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel method based on the Hierarchical Recurrent Highway Network (HRHN) with attention mechanisms. This method is applied to a time-dependent reliability assessment of the Baishuihe landslide. By incorporating the spatial variability of geotechnical properties—especially the direction of maximum fluctuation—the study constructs both the most adverse and favorable extreme scenarios, enabling the exploration of failure probability evolution under reservoir drawdown and rainfall infiltration. Compared with traditional horizontally…
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Taxonomy
TopicsGeotechnical Engineering and Analysis · Landslides and related hazards · Dam Engineering and Safety
