Floating population diversity as a leading indicator of business turnover imbalance in commercial districts: A spatial panel analysis in Seoul
Seongman Jang, Youngsoo An
TL;DR
This study introduces a new way to predict commercial instability in Seoul by analyzing visitor diversity and business turnover patterns.
Contribution
The study introduces a Commercial Instability Index and integrates floating population diversity with spatial analysis to predict commercial instability.
Findings
Higher day-of-week diversity consistently reduces commercial instability.
Age diversity partially mitigates instability in commercial districts.
Commercial instability shows spatial dependence, spreading from one district to its neighbors.
Abstract
This study develops a quantitative indicator for the early diagnosis of commercial instability in business openings and closures and proposes a new analytical framework for assessing the stability of commercial districts. To address the limitations of prior research that relied on static measures such as sales or store counts, two complementary approaches were introduced. First, we propose the Commercial Instability Index (CII), a direction-agnostic metric of turnover instability computed from the standardized relative deviation between openings and closures, where larger values indicate greater instability. Second, entropy-based floating population diversity indicators were applied to capture the distribution of visitors by age, time of day, and day of week, as well as their temporal changes. These indicators were tested on quarterly panel data from 1,650 commercial districts in Seoul…
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Taxonomy
TopicsRegional resilience and development · Land Use and Ecosystem Services · Regional Economics and Spatial Analysis