Threshold analysis of rainfall and groundwater recharge in mitigating drought risks in overexploited groundwater regions
Uneeb Ur Rehman Ali, Jinfeng Du, Muhammad Azram, Hassan Mujtaba Nawaz Saleem, Muhammad Hassan Raza
TL;DR
This study explores how rainfall and groundwater recharge can reduce drought risks in regions with overexploited groundwater.
Contribution
The study introduces a Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression model to identify rainfall and recharge thresholds for mitigating drought.
Findings
A 1-millimeter increase in rainfall improves drought conditions by 0.003 units on the SPEI scale.
Groundwater recharge has a stronger impact, improving the SPEI by 5.06 units per standard deviation increase.
Temperature significantly worsens droughts, while CO2 emissions show no direct impact.
Abstract
This study examines how rainfall and groundwater recharge can help mitigate drought conditions, using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) as the drought indicator. It focuses on the top ten countries experiencing groundwater overexploitation and incorporates a global average perspective to provide deeper insights into these critical relationships. These insights are essential for informed policy-making and integrated decision-making, involving a range of stakeholders from local users to international policymakers on drought mitigation efforts from 1961 to 2022. The analysis employs the novel technique to estimate Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression (DPThR) model. The findings reveal that a 1-millimeter increase in rainfall improves the SPEI by 0.003 units, thereby reducing drought likelihood. The threshold for mitigating drought effects is identified at 614.41…
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Taxonomy
TopicsHydrology and Drought Analysis · Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies · Groundwater and Watershed Analysis