# Mapping mosquito diversity in Kenya correlating species distribution with malaria prevalence across varied climatic parameters

## TL;DR

This study explores how climate and mosquito species distribution in Kenya affect malaria prevalence, aiming to inform targeted control strategies.

## Contribution

The study provides new insights into the spatial dynamics of mosquito species and malaria epidemiological zones in Kenya.

## Key findings

- Malaria prevalence was highest in the Lake Endemic zone at 19% in 2020.
- Anopheles gambiae dominated coastal and semi-arid areas, while Anopheles funestus was prevalent in highland and lake zones.
- Environmental factors and ITN coverage were important predictors of malaria prevalence.

## Abstract

Malaria is a major public health problem, with over half of the world’s population, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, at risk. Climate change is already affecting the prevalence of malaria, in part by altering the distribution and density of mosquito vectors. This study assessed the relationship between climate variables and mosquito species distribution on malaria prevalence in Kenya from January 2019 to June 2021.

Data from 23 Kenyan counties were analyzed using mixed-effect regression, spatial analysis, correlation analysis, and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to select variables.

Malaria prevalence was highest in the Lake Endemic (19%), followed by the Coastal Endemic (5%), semi-arid seasonal (2%), and low-risk (0.9%) malaria epidemiologic zones in 2020. Mosquito species distribution varied, with distinct ecological preferences observed with Anopheles gambiae dominated coastal and semi-arid areas, while Anopheles funestus was highest in the highland and lake zones. Regression analysis indicated that a combination of environmental factors and public health interventions, including insecticide-treated nets (ITN) coverage, was an important predictor of malaria prevalence. However, the relationship between these factors and malaria prevalence varied across regions and time periods.

This study provides insights into the spatial dynamics of mosquito species and their distribution in relation to malaria epidemiological zones in Kenya, thereby informing targeted control strategies.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-025-05713-y.