# Depression and Crime Across Different Neighborhoods in the Swedish General Population

## TL;DR

This study finds that depression is linked to higher crime rates in different Swedish neighborhoods, with some of the link explained by family factors.

## Contribution

The study reveals how depression's association with crime varies by neighborhood and is partially influenced by unmeasured familial factors.

## Key findings

- Depression is associated with increased odds of violent and nonviolent convictions across all neighborhood types.
- The association is lowest in resource-limited neighborhoods and partially attenuated in sibling comparisons.
- Familial factors explain some, but not all, of the depression-crime link.

## Abstract

Does the association between depression and violent and nonviolent crime differ across neighborhoods, and do unmeasured familial factors contribute to it?

In this cohort study of 95 245 individuals with depression and 476 225 controls, depression was significantly associated with higher odds of both violent convictions and nonviolent convictions. Associations were lowest in resource-limited neighborhoods and were partially attenuated in sibling analyses.

These findings suggest that depression is associated with increased risk of criminal convictions across neighborhood types and underscore the relevance of considering contextual and familial factors for prevention and intervention strategies responsive to neighborhood social environments.

This cohort study examines whether the association between depression and violent and nonviolent criminal convictions varies across neighborhood types and assesses the extent to which unmeasured familial factors contribute to the association.

Depression and factors reflecting neighborhood social structure (ie, socioeconomic deprivation, ethnic heterogeneity, residential mobility, and urbanicity) have each been linked to criminal convictions. However, how the association between depression and crime varies across different neighborhood types, and the extent to which it reflects unmeasured familial confounding, remains unclear.

To examine whether the association between depression and violent and nonviolent criminal convictions varies across neighborhood types, and to assess the extent to which unmeasured familial factors contribute to the association.

This population-based matched cohort and sibling-comparison study used data from Swedish national registers from 1986 to 2020. Follow-up spanned from 2001 to 2020. Statistical analyses were performed from January to November 2025. The cohort included individuals with a diagnosis of depression, each matched to 5 population controls without depression by birth year, sex, and neighborhood type.

Outpatient depression diagnosis (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes F32-F33.9) recorded from 2001 to 2020.

The primary outcomes were violent and nonviolent criminal convictions after diagnosis, identified through the National Crime Register. Conditional logistic regression estimated odds ratios (ORs) across 4 neighborhood types (resource-limited, rural low-diversity, urban professional, and urban affluent neighborhoods), with sibling comparisons used to assess familial confounding.

Among 571 470 matched individuals, 95 245 (36 297 male [38.1%]; median [IQR] age at first diagnosis, 20 [17-24] years) had depression. Depression was associated with increased odds of both violent and nonviolent convictions across all neighborhood types in unadjusted models. After adjustment for prior convictions, substance use disorder, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, associations remained significant in all but resource-limited neighborhoods (violent conviction OR, 1.14 [95% CI, 0.97-1.33]; nonviolent conviction OR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.92-1.11]). A second sample included 42 585 individuals with depression and their full siblings without depression (total, 85 170 individuals). Sibling comparisons showed partial attenuation, indicating that familial confounding accounted for some, but not all, of the associations. Sibling-matched estimates were largely consistent with fully adjusted general population-matched estimates (eg, violent convictions in rural low-diversity neighborhoods: sibling-matched OR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.33-1.69] vs general population-matched OR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.39-1.65]).

In this cohort study of the Swedish general population, the association between depression and criminal convictions varied across neighborhood types and was partially explained by familial factors. These findings underscore the relevance of considering contextual and familial influences and may offer insights for prevention and intervention strategies responsive to neighborhood social environments.