# Predicting the current and future distribution of Helianthus tuberosus L. in China using the MaxEnt model under climate change scenarios

## TL;DR

This study predicts how climate change will affect the distribution of Helianthus tuberosus in China, identifying key regions for conservation and cultivation.

## Contribution

The study introduces a hyperparameter-tuned MaxEnt model to forecast H. tuberosus distribution under climate change scenarios in China.

## Key findings

- Land cover, NDVI, and minimum winter temperature are the main drivers of H. tuberosus distribution.
- Future projections show a 20.4% expansion of suitable habitats in northwest China due to winter warming.
- The geographic centroid of suitable habitats shifts 197-238 km northwestward under climate change.

## Abstract

Predicting the biogeographic shifts of Helianthus tuberosus L. (H. tuberosus) under climate change is critical for its conservation and sustainable cultivation.

We utilized occurrence records (n=295) and environmental variables to model current and future distributions across China via a hyperparameter-tuned MaxEnt framework under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126–SSP585, 2050s–2090s).

The model identified land cover (28.7%), vegetation index NDVI (23.7%), and minimum winter temperature (Bio6, 14.7%) as dominant drivers, collectively explaining 92.3% of distribution constraints. Currently, highly suitable habitats (6.03% of China’s area) cluster in Yunnan, Guizhou, and central Jiangxi. Future projections indicate a 20.4% expansion of these habitats in northwest China due to winter warming, while southeastern coastal regions contract by 9.1% under extreme precipitation. The geographic centroid shifts 197- 238 km northwestward.

This shift highlights northwest China as a key climate refuge for H. tuberosus. These results prioritize conservation efforts and support strategic cultivation in climate-resilient zones.