# Modelling Immune Dynamics in Locally Advanced MSI-H/dMMR Colorectal Cancer with Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab Treatment: From Differential Equations to an Agent-Based Framework

**Authors:** Georgio Hawi, Peter S. Kim, Peter P. Lee

PMC · DOI: 10.1007/s11538-026-01594-7 · Bulletin of Mathematical Biology · 2026-02-02

## TL;DR

This paper models immune responses in colorectal cancer patients treated with pembrolizumab using differential equations and agent-based models.

## Contribution

The novel contribution is the development of an extensible ODE model and its conversion to an ABM for immune dynamics in laMCRC.

## Key findings

- An ODE model captures immune dynamics in pembrolizumab-treated CRC.
- The ODE model was converted to an ABM preserving its dynamics for future investigations.

## Abstract

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common malignancy worldwide, and accounts for approximately 10% of all cancers and an estimated 850,000 deaths annually. Within CRC, MSI-H/dMMR tumours are highly immunogenic due to their high mutational burden and neoantigen load, yet can evade immunosurveillance via PD-1/PD-L1-mediated signalling. Pembrolizumab, an anti-PD-1 antibody approved for unresectable or metastatic MSI-H/dMMR CRC, is emerging as a promising neoadjuvant option in the locally advanced setting, inducing rapid, deep and durable immune responses. In this work, we construct a minimal model of neoadjuvant pembrolizumab therapy in locally advanced MSI-H/dMMR CRC (laMCRC) using ordinary differential equations (ODEs), providing a highly extensible model that captures the main immune dynamics involved. On the other hand, agent-based models (ABMs) naturally capture stochasticity, interactions at an individual level, and discrete events that lie beyond the scope of differential-equation formulations. As such, we also convert our ODE model, with parameters calibrated to experimental data, to an ABM, preserving its dynamics while providing a flexible platform for future mechanistic investigation and modelling.

## Linked entities

- **Proteins:** PDCD1 (programmed cell death 1), CD274 (CD274 molecule)
- **Diseases:** colorectal cancer (MONDO:0005575)

## Full-text entities

- **Genes:** CD4 (CD4 molecule) [NCBI Gene 404704], IFNA1 (interferon alpha 1) [NCBI Gene 3439] {aka IFL, IFN, IFN-ALPHA, IFN-alphaD, IFNA13, IFNA@}, HMGB1 (high mobility group box 1) [NCBI Gene 445521], CD274 (CD274 molecule) [NCBI Gene 574058] {aka PDL1}, CD274 (CD274 molecule) [NCBI Gene 29126] {aka ADMIO5, B7-H, B7H1, PD-L1, PDCD1L1, PDCD1LG1}, TNF (tumor necrosis factor) [NCBI Gene 397086] {aka TNFSF2, TNFa}, IL10 (interleukin 10) [NCBI Gene 3586] {aka CSIF, GVHDS, IL-10, IL10A, TGIF}, PDCD1LG2 (programmed cell death 1 ligand 2) [NCBI Gene 80380] {aka B7DC, Btdc, CD273, PD-L2, PDCD1L2, PDL2}, IL2 (interleukin 2) [NCBI Gene 3558] {aka IL-2, TCGF, lymphokine}, CD8A (CD8 subunit alpha) [NCBI Gene 925] {aka CD8, CD8alpha, IMD116, Leu2, p32}, TNF (tumor necrosis factor) [NCBI Gene 7124] {aka DIF, IMD127, TNF-alpha, TNFA, TNFSF2, TNLG1F}, PDCD1 (programmed cell death 1) [NCBI Gene 5133] {aka ADMIO4, AIMTBS, CD279, PD-1, PD1, SLEB2}
- **Diseases:** lymph node metastasis (MESH:D008207), MSI-H tumours (MESH:D009369), TS (MESH:D005879), ABMs (MESH:D019292), MSI-H (MESH:D000848), deaths (MESH:D003643), necrosis (MESH:D009336), CRC (MESH:D015179), inflammatory (MESH:D007249)
- **Chemicals:** Pembrolizumab (MESH:C582435), KEYNOTE-177 (-), 5-fluorouracil (MESH:D005472)
- **Species:** Homo sapiens (human, species) [taxon 9606]

## Full text

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## Figures

12 figures with captions in the complete paper: https://tomesphere.com/paper/PMC12864367/full.md

## References

25 references — full list in the complete paper: https://tomesphere.com/paper/PMC12864367/full.md

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Source: https://tomesphere.com/paper/PMC12864367