# Undergraduate GPA does not predict success in PhD programs for cohorts of MS students at two minority-serving institutions

## TL;DR

This study shows that undergraduate GPA is not a reliable predictor of success in PhD programs for students from underrepresented backgrounds who participate in MS research training programs.

## Contribution

The study demonstrates that structured MS programs can support students with lower GPAs in successfully pursuing PhDs, promoting diversity in STEM.

## Key findings

- High undergraduate GPA does not correlate with success in PhD acceptance, completion, or time to degree.
- MS programs increase diversity without negatively impacting majority student participation.
- Holistic admissions approaches are recommended to include students with GPA below 3.0.

## Abstract

Master of Science (MS) research training programs funded by organizations such as the NIH, the NSF as well as private corporations represent the potential for significant interventions for student success, especially for marginalized or underrepresented and first-generation students, to bridge the gap between undergraduate studies and doctoral programs. These students often face serious challenges during their undergraduate years, such as navigating unfamiliar academic systems, balancing demanding coursework with work responsibilities, and fulfilling family obligations. These and other systemic pressures can impede their academic progress and opportunities for research experience. We therefore asked how their undergraduate GPA impacted success in the PhD in terms of (i) acceptance, (ii) completion, and (iii) time to degree after participating in a funded MS research training program. We examined data collected at San Francisco State University and California State University, Los Angeles over a 30-year period because they (i) had similar student demographics, (ii) were institutions with strong MS degree programs, and (iii) had an infrastructure (established offices) to coordinate various training programs. We found that high GPA did not predict greater success in entering or completing the PhD, or in time to degree. This study, therefore, demonstrates that undergraduates from diverse groups with lower undergraduate GPA levels can benefit from a structured MS research training program in reaching their goal of becoming PhD scientists. Interestingly, increases in diversity of these programs did not adversely affect participation of majority students but rather enhanced the program’s participation by doubling the MS student body. Moreover, it indicates that more holistic approaches in admissions are required, including limiting the use of a GPA below 3.0 as an early filter to eliminate applicants. These MS programs appear to play a crucial role as a bridge to PhD studies and are instrumental in enhancing diversity within STEM fields. We suggest that a strategy for success is to provide infrastructure in the form of a coordinating office housing the training grants as a means of structuring mentorship and professional development for under-represented and first-generation students.