# Food prices and food crises since 2020: evidence from Mali, northeast Nigeria, Sudan, and northern Uganda

## TL;DR

Food prices in four African countries doubled since 2020 due to local issues like poor harvests and conflict, not global price changes, worsening food insecurity for vulnerable people.

## Contribution

This study provides evidence that local factors, not global price trends, drove food price increases in Mali, Nigeria, Sudan, and Uganda.

## Key findings

- Staple food prices in the four countries doubled by mid-2022 and remained high through mid-2025.
- Domestic issues like failed harvests and conflict were the main causes of price increases, not global market trends.
- Low-income people reduced food consumption and spent less on health and education to cope with rising prices.

## Abstract

When world prices of maize and wheat doubled between early 2020 and mid‐2022, it was feared the increases would transmit to markets in the Global South, threatening the food security of vulnerable people. We report studies conducted in Mali, northeast Nigeria, Sudan, and northern Uganda to examine changes in the prices of cereals, their consequences, and public responses. From early 2020, the prices of staples in the four countries rose strongly, doubling or more, and remained high up to the time of writing (mid‐2025). Price increases resulted largely from domestic factors, above all failed harvests and, in Mali and Sudan, conflict: world prices played only a minor role. People on low incomes economised on food, cut spending on health and education, and tried to cope by finding extra work, selling off assets, and borrowing money—but not always successfully. Public support has been scant: most people have had to manage using the resources of family, neighbours, and local communities.