The economic burden of COVID-19 premature mortality in Kuwait

TL;DR

This study estimates the economic cost of early deaths from COVID-19 in Kuwait, showing that non-Kuwaiti workers bore a large share of the burden.

Contribution

The first study in the Gulf region to quantify the economic burden of premature mortality from COVID-19 using multiple valuation methods.

Findings

2,891 confirmed deaths caused 68,000 years of potential life lost, with 61% among non-Kuwaitis.

The economic burden was highest using the Value of Statistical Life method at 10.4 billion PPP$.

Non-Kuwaiti males in working ages experienced the highest mortality and economic losses.

Abstract

COVID-19 has caused substantial mortality worldwide, with significant economic consequences. In countries with segmented labour markets, such as Kuwait—where most citizens work in the public sector and most non-Kuwaitis occupy high-exposure essential jobs—the economic impact of premature mortality could be considerably high and these losses may differ across population groups. No prior study in the Gulf region has quantified these losses using established valuation methods.

We conducted a retrospective analysis of all confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Kuwait between 2020 and 2022. Years of Potential Life Lost (YPLL) was calculated to measure the epidemiological burden of premature mortality. The economic cost of premature mortality was estimated from a societal perspective using three approaches: the Value of Statistical Life (VSL), the Human Capital Approach (HCA), and the Friction Cost Approach (FCA). Consumption, wage, and employment parameters were drawn from national 2021 surveys, and all estimates were expressed in 2021 international dollars (PPP$). Sensitivity analyses assessed the influence of key assumptions for each method.

A total of 2,891 COVID-19 deaths occurred during the study period, resulting in approximately 68,000 YPLL, of which 61% were among non-Kuwaitis. Mortality among non-Kuwaiti males was concentrated in working ages, while Kuwaiti deaths occurred primarily in older adults. The total economic burden of premature mortality was estimated at 10.4 billion PPP$ using VSL, 548 million PPP$ using HCA, and 33 million PPP$ using FCA. Kuwaitis accounted for a larger share of VSL and HCA losses, whereas non-Kuwaitis bore the greatest share of YPLL and HCA losses in working ages. Sensitivity analyses showed that VSL results were most affected by discount rate and risk aversion, HCA by age-at-death and wage assumptions, and FCA by vacancy multipliers and friction periods; however, the relative ranking of the methods remained consistent.

Premature COVID-19 deaths in Kuwait generated a significant economic burden, falling most heavily on non-Kuwaiti working-age men. The findings highlight the need for improved occupational protections, stronger support for migrant workers, and targeted preparedness strategies in countries with similar dual labour-market systems.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-025-25940-x.

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