The implications of uncertainties on global lithium resources availability estimations
Dongping Zhou, Steve Pye, Brunilde Verrier, Paul Dodds
TL;DR
This study estimates global lithium availability and finds that meeting future demand could require higher costs due to uncertainties in resource recovery and production methods.
Contribution
A new global lithium deposit database and methodology combining Monte Carlo and depletion curve analyses to estimate lithium availability and costs.
Findings
Recoverable lithium resources are estimated at 35.5 million tonnes.
Lithium all-in costs range from 1,194 to 31,590 USD/t LCE.
Future lithium production may increasingly rely on brine rather than ore.
Abstract
The accelerating energy transition, driven by decarbonization goals and energy security concerns, is intensifying global lithium demand. However, few studies assess whether supply can meet this demand under uncertainty. This study examines long-term lithium availability by constructing a global bottom-up deposit database and generating a cumulative availability curve (CAC). A six-step methodology combining Monte Carlo and depletion curve analyses estimates 35.5 Mt of lithium, with costs from 1,194 to 31,590 USD/t LCE (2023). Current supply is dominated by low-cost Australian ore, while future production may depend more on brine. Comparison with IEA demand scenarios indicates that conservative assumptions could lead to shortfalls, whereas meeting ambitious climate goals may entail higher costs. Sensitivity analysis shows that physical and technical uncertainties exert the greatest…
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Taxonomy
TopicsExtraction and Separation Processes · Environmental Impact and Sustainability · Global Energy and Sustainability Research