Tropical-leaning Atlantic Oscillation favors more typhoons toward Asian high-latitude cities

TL;DR

A new climate pattern called TAO may cause typhoons to move toward high-latitude East Asian cities as the climate warms.

Contribution

The discovery of the Tropical-leaning Atlantic Oscillation (TAO) as a predictor of typhoon track shifts in the Northwest Pacific.

Findings

Springtime TAO explains 56% of typhoon track variation variance in July–September.

TAO is linked to cross-seasonal temperature anomalies that steer typhoons toward high-latitude cities.

Climate models suggest increasing TAO events may shift typhoon activity poleward with global warming.

Abstract

Poleward migration of Northwest Pacific typhoons brings severe impacts on East Asian high-latitude cities, yet early typhoon climate prediction remains a long-standing scientific challenge. Here we reveal a seemingly-familiar-yet-strange climate oscillation phenomenon, which we name Tropical-leaning Atlantic Oscillation (TAO). Statistical results show that springtime TAO can explain 56% of the variance in a dominant dipole mode of typhoon track variations during July–September of 1979–2023, suggesting that it possesses a robust predictive skill of peak-season typhoon tracks four months in advance. Specifically, springtime TAO is characterized by a sea-level pressure seesaw between the tropical North Atlantic and the Hudson Bay-Davis Strait, relating to the meridional shift of North America-Atlantic subtropical jet stream. It generates cross-seasonal North Atlantic-and-Pacific surface seawater temperature anomalies, thereby triggering Northwest Pacific cyclonic steering flows that tempt (obstruct) typhoons toward East Asian high-latitude (low-latitude) cities during July–September. Climate models project an increasing frequency of positive TAO events. This may potentially contribute to a poleward migration of typhoon activity toward East Asian high-latitude cities as climate warms, yet uncertainty remains due to model biases in simulating tropical surface seawater temperature patterns. Our results highlight an overlooked impact of an emerging internal climatic oscillation on the enhancing typhoon risks toward high-latitudes.

The study identifies a springtime climate mode, the Tropical-leaning Atlantic Oscillation, which influences typhoon tracks in the Northwest Pacific, potentially shifting them poleward, toward high-latitude cities in East Asia in a warmer climate.

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