# Integrated eco-economic zoning and carbon neutrality zoning into the PLUS model to simulate land use change in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

## TL;DR

This study improves land use simulations in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao region by integrating eco-economic and carbon neutrality zoning into a model.

## Contribution

The paper introduces two zoning strategies to enhance the accuracy of land use simulations in heterogeneous urban regions.

## Key findings

- Eco-economic and carbon neutrality zoning improved simulation accuracy by over 25% compared to whole-region simulations.
- PLUS model accuracy varied across sub-partitions, highlighting spatial differentiation in land use change.
- Partitioned strategies support differentiated zoning control for sustainable urban planning.

## Abstract

Numerous studies have simulated land use dynamics in megacity regions for sustainable development and urban planning. However, many existing studies apply uniform transition rules across entire regions, ignoring the spatial heterogeneity among subregions. Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), one of the three typical urban agglomerations in China, witnesses increased ecological risks and carbon emissions. Aiming to strengthen environmental zoning control, we conducted partition and land use change simulation research. Taking GBA as the study area, we proposed two comprehensive partitions and compared their effects on the simulation accuracy of Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS). One partition was eco-economic zoning, and another was carbon neutrality zoning. The results showed that both partitioned strategies improved accuracy by more than 25% compared to the whole-region simulation. Additionally, the accuracy of the PLUS model varied in sub-partitions. The implementation of PLUS simulations based on different partitions provides a deeper understanding of the spatial differentiation mechanisms of land conversion rules, thereby supporting differentiated zoning control.