# Global surge in pancreatic cancer cases driven by ageing populations and modifiable risks

## TL;DR

Pancreatic cancer cases are expected to rise sharply by 2050, especially in older populations and in Asia and Africa, due to aging and lifestyle factors like smoking and alcohol.

## Contribution

The study projects an 85–91% increase in elderly pancreatic cancer cases by 2050 and highlights region-specific and sex-tailored prevention needs.

## Key findings

- Northern America and Europe have the highest pancreatic cancer burden, with males more affected than females.
- Asia is projected to face the most new pancreatic cancer cases (487,087) by 2050, while Africa will see the fastest mortality growth (159.2%).
- Strong correlations exist between pancreatic cancer prevalence and lifestyle factors like high cholesterol, smoking, and alcohol consumption.

## Abstract

Pancreatic cancer (PC) ranks among the most lethal malignant neoplasms, primarily due to its late-stage diagnosis and lack of available therapeutic modalities. This study aimed to characterise the current PC epidemiological profiles, lifestyle-related contributors, and projections to unveil its global disease burden.

Using 2022 data from the Global Cancer Observatory (GCO), we estimated PC incidence, mortality, 5-year prevalence, and mortality-incidence-ratio. Modifiable risk factors were extracted from the Global Health Observatory to identify its predictive model. The temporal trends were assessed via estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) stratified by age and gender, and the future projection was also collected from GCO, 2022–2050, estimated number of new cases and deaths data.

In 2022, Northern America and Europe had the highest PC burden, with males consistently affected more than females. Alarmingly, a concerning increase in PC mortality was observed among older females. Projections indicate an 85–91% increase in elderly PC cases by 2050, with Asia facing the greatest challenge (487 087 estimated new cases) and Africa being estimated with the fastest mortality growth (159.2%). Strong positive correlations were observed between PC prevalence and human development index (HDI), as well as lifestyle factors e.g. raised total cholesterol (correlation coefficient (r) = 0.695, P < 0.001), cigarette smoking (r = 0.528, P < 0.001), and alcohol drinking (r = 0.505, P < 0.001).

This research underlines the urgent need for region-specific interventions, not only for Northern America and Europe, which currently bear a high PC burden, but also for high-risk populations like Asia and Africa. The projected 85–91% rise in elderly PC cases by 2050, coupled with emerging risks in young females (incidence rose in n/N = 39/52 countries), demands prioritised research on modifiable factors and sex-tailored prevention strategies. These discoveries call for global action to mitigate the escalating PC burden through demographic-targeted public health measures.