Nature vs. nurture: parental care cushions agricultural drought impacts on child health in South Africa
Bopaki Phogole, Dikobe Molepo, Mamadi Theresa Sethusa, Kowiyou Yessoufou

TL;DR
This study shows that parental care and access to basic services reduce the impact of drought on child health in South Africa.
Contribution
The study introduces a structural equation model linking agricultural drought, socio-environmental factors, and child health outcomes.
Findings
The Northern Cape, Western Cape, and Free State are highly vulnerable to agricultural drought.
Orphan status is a stronger predictor of malnutrition than drought itself.
Proximity to clinics influences access to basic services, highlighting combined healthcare and environmental challenges.
Abstract
This study investigates the spatiotemporal trends of drought and its impact on child health in South Africa, focusing on low birth weight (LBW) and severe acute malnutrition in children under five. We collected data on child health indicators (LBW and malnutrition) and social determinants, including orphan status, child food poverty, proximity to clinics, water access, and sanitation access, from the Children’s Institute at the University of Cape Town. Environmental data, comprising the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and maximum temperatures, were retrieved from MODIS, Global SPEI, and TerraClimate datasets, covering 2002 to 2022. We then fitted a series of linear regressions and combined them into a structural equation model to explore relationships between socio-environmental factors and child health outcomes.…
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Taxonomy
TopicsChild Nutrition and Water Access · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Global Maternal and Child Health
