# Is the 10‐Year Trajectory of Physical Activity Associated With the Incidence of Mild Cognitive Impairment in Older Adults?

**Authors:** Joel de Almeida Siqueira Junior, Francisco Timbó de Paiva Neto, Carla Elane Silva Santos, Lucas Gomes Alves, Eleonora d'Orsi, Cassiano Ricardo Rech

PMC · DOI: 10.1111/psyg.70141 · 2026-01-29

## TL;DR

This study found that staying physically active over 10 years may lower the risk of mild cognitive impairment in older adults.

## Contribution

The study identifies physical activity trajectories and links sustained activity to reduced MCI risk over a decade.

## Key findings

- Active physical activity trajectories were associated with a 40% lower MCI risk.
- Walking ≥10 min/week was linked to a 34% lower MCI risk.
- Inactive trajectories showed higher incidence of MCI in older adults.

## Abstract

To identify leisure‐time physical activity trajectories in older adults and examine their association with the incidence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) over a decade.

This longitudinal study used data from the EpiFloripa Aging Cohort Study (2009–2019). The sample included older adults of both sexes, aged 60 years or older, residing in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil. MCI was assessed using the Mini‐Mental State Examination, and incidence was defined as new cases identified after baseline. Leisure‐time physical activity was measured using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Older adults reporting no participation (≤ 10 min/week) in moderate‐to‐vigorous physical activity (MVPA) or walking were classified as following an ‘inactive trajectory’, while those maintaining ≥ 10 min/week of MVPA or walking were considered to follow an ‘active trajectory’. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated to test the associations.

A total of 731 older adults were followed (66.6% women). The incidence of MCI was 104 new cases (18.5%; 95% CI: 14.8–20.9). Older adults who maintained an active trajectory of MVPA and walking in leisure time had a 40% lower risk (IRR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.38–0.92) and a 34% lower risk (IRR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.47–0.96), respectively, of developing MCI during the follow‐up period.

Maintaining an active trajectory of physical activity was associated with a reduced risk of developing MCI after 10 years of follow‐up. Leisure‐time MVPA and walking programs may represent promising strategies to promote cognitive function in older adults.

## Full-text entities

- **Diseases:** MCI (MESH:D060825), Cognitive Impairment (MESH:D003072)
- **Species:** Homo sapiens (human, species) [taxon 9606]

## Figures

3 figures with captions in the complete paper: https://tomesphere.com/paper/PMC12854854/full.md

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Source: https://tomesphere.com/paper/PMC12854854