From Social Attitudes to Outcomes: The Role of Institutional Quality in Development

TL;DR

The paper shows how public attitudes on gender equality, environment, and immigration influence institutions, which in turn affect economic development.

Contribution

A novel mediation model using Bayesian Network Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling to show how social attitudes shape institutions and development outcomes.

Findings

Institutional quality mediates the effects of social attitudes on development outcomes.

Neutral and mixed-neutral attitudes have the strongest positive indirect effects on development.

Negative attitudes weaken institutions and reduce development performance.

Abstract

Institutional quality is a critical determinant of development outcomes, yet the role of social attitudes in shaping institutions remains underexplored. This study examines the impact of public attitudes toward gender equality, environmental protection, and immigration on institutional strength and socioeconomic development.

Using data from Wave 7 of the World Values Survey, we apply a classification of attitudes based on a combination of set theory and ordinal preference logic. Respondents are grouped into 27 attitude combinations and then aggregated into eight categories. Country-level proportions are computed. We apply Bayesian Network Analysis (BNA) to uncover complex dependencies, identifying relationships and central institutional nodes such as the rule of law, democratic stability, and market organisation. Latent institutional quality and development outcomes variables are derived using Principal Component Analysis. We then use Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to test a mediation model, estimating direct and indirect effects of attitudes on development outcomes. Bootstrapping with 5,000 replications ensures statistical robustness.

BNA reveals that institutional quality is a key bridge between social attitudes and development outcomes. SEM confirms that institutional quality mediates these effects in most cases. Neutral-positive and mixed-neutral attitudes yield the most potent positive indirect effects, underscoring their role in consensus building. Negative attitudes are associated with institutional weakening and lower development performance. Interestingly, moderately negative views may drive democratic reform when linked to institutional accountability.

Social attitudes affect development primarily through their influence on institutions. Contrary to common assumptions, moderate and neutral positions are not passive; they foster institutional adaptability and stability. These findings underscore the importance of targeting centrist groups in policy design to reinforce inclusive governance and long-term development.

This study examines how people’s attitudes towards gender equality, environmental protection and immigration affect the quality of institutions and, in turn, economic performance. Using global survey data, the research categorises attitudes as positive, neutral or negative and analyses their effects using advanced statistical methods.

The results show that institutions act as a bridge between social attitudes and development. Positive and neutral attitudes towards the three topics help strengthen institutions, leading to economic development. Interestingly, moderate or less extreme views (neutral attitudes) have a greater positive effect on institutional quality than positive ones. Furthermore, negative attitudes weaken institutions and hinder economic development. These findings suggest that less polarised societies are more likely to develop strong and effective institutions.

The research in this paper provides a comprehensive approach to better understanding the links between social attitudes, institutional quality and economic development. It can help policymakers design more effective and inclusive governance frameworks.

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