Agronomic management drives the wheat yield plateau in high-yielding environments of northwest Europe

TL;DR

Wheat yields in northwest Europe have stopped increasing since the 1990s, not due to genetics or climate, but because of poor farming practices.

Contribution

The study identifies agronomic management as the key factor behind the wheat yield plateau in northwest Europe.

Findings

Improved genetics contributed 74–84 kg ha−1 yr−1 to wheat yield gains from 1994–2016.

Climate change contributed 26–60 kg ha−1 yr−1 to yield gains during the same period.

Agronomic management is responsible for unrealized yield gains of 67–114 kg ha−1 yr−1.

Abstract

Northwest Europe experienced considerable increases in wheat yield until the mid-1990s, but progress has remained stagnant since then. Estimating the relative contributions of improved genetics, historical climate change and agronomic management to this yield plateau is required to understand the feasibility of yield increases in the future. Analysis of high-quality experimental data revealed yield gains due to improved genetics of 74–84 kg ha−1 yr−1 during the period 1994–2016. Thus far, yield gains due to historical climate change of 26–60 kg ha−1 yr−1 were estimated over the same period using a well-validated crop model across regions, soil types and cultivars. Given the absence of genetic and climatic yield ceilings, we conclude that agronomic management is responsible for the wheat yield plateau in northwest Europe, contributing to unrealized potential yield gains of 67–114 kg ha−1 yr−1. Breaking the yield plateau will require due attention to agronomic constraints at the farm level and continued monitoring of genetic gains and climate change impacts on wheat yields.

Wheat yields in northwest Europe have plateaued since the mid-1990s. This study finds that no ceiling in genetic yield potential has been reached and that climatic conditions have not constrained wheat yields across high-yielding environments in the region thus far; suboptimal agronomic management is responsible for unrealized wheat yield progress of 67–114 kg ha−1 yr−1 during the period 1994–2016.

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