# Spatial Patterns and Diversity of the Genus Agave in the Southern Iberian Peninsula: The Role of Anthropogenic Drivers in the Expansion of Agave americana

## TL;DR

This study explores the spread of Agave plants in southern Spain, showing that human activity plays a major role in their expansion.

## Contribution

The study reveals the previously underestimated inland distribution of Agave americana and identifies anthropogenic factors as key drivers.

## Key findings

- Agave americana is more widespread in inland areas than previously recorded.
- Human-modified landscapes and elevation are the main factors driving its distribution.
- High suitability for Agave americana is found in the Guadalquivir valley and coastal zones.

## Abstract

The genus Agave L. is a key component of Mediterranean alien flora, yet its inland distribution in the Iberian Peninsula remains poorly understood. This research integrates exhaustive field surveys with Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to characterize the genus diversity and, specifically, the spatial patterns and environmental niche of Agave americana in the southern Iberian Peninsula (Andalusia). Our results reveal a diversity of 23 taxa, yet crucially, the widespread occurrence of A. americana demonstrated that its actual inland distribution is significantly more extensive than previously recorded. Spatial Point Pattern Analysis (SPPA) revealed a strong aggregated distribution pattern (Clark & Evans R = 0.277; p < 0.001). The MaxEnt Spatial Distribution Model demonstrated robust predictive performance (Mean AUC = 0.770 ± 0.007; Mean TSS = 0.420 ± 0.009). The distribution was primarily driven by elevation range (26.9%) and land use (23.1%), with maximum suitability peaking in anthropized, low-to-intermediate elevation areas. Projections to the broader Andalusian region confirmed high suitability in the Guadalquivir valley and coastal zones, validated by low spatial uncertainty (SD < 0.05 in optimal areas). These findings provide new insights into the biogeography of Agave in the region, emphasizing the significance of anthropogenic drivers within a cultural landscape context.