# Hybrid Unsupervised–Supervised Learning Framework for Rainfall Prediction Using Satellite Signal Strength Attenuation

## TL;DR

This paper presents a new machine learning framework that uses satellite signal data to predict rainfall, especially in tropical regions with limited weather infrastructure.

## Contribution

The novel hybrid framework combines unsupervised clustering with cluster-specific supervised models for improved rainfall prediction using satellite signal attenuation.

## Key findings

- Cluster-specific LSTM models achieved R2 values exceeding 0.92 across all atmospheric regimes.
- LSTM outperformed RNN and GRU in rainfall prediction tasks.
- The system demonstrated high detection accuracy with Probability of Detection between 0.75 and 0.99.

## Abstract

Satellite communication systems experience significant signal degradation during rain events, a phenomenon that can be leveraged for meteorological applications. This study introduces a novel hybrid machine learning framework combining unsupervised clustering with cluster-specific supervised deep learning models to transform satellite signal attenuation into a predictive tool for rainfall prediction. Unlike conventional single-model approaches treating all atmospheric conditions uniformly, our methodology employs K-Means Clustering with the Elbow Method to identify four distinct atmospheric regimes based on Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) patterns from a 12-m Ku-band satellite ground station at King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang (KMITL), Bangkok, Thailand, combined with absolute pressure and hourly rainfall measurements. The dataset comprises 98,483 observations collected with 30-s temporal resolutions, providing comprehensive coverage of diverse tropical atmospheric conditions. The experimental platform integrates three subsystems: a receiver chain featuring a Low-Noise Block (LNB) converter and Software-Defined Radio (SDR) platform for real-time data acquisition; a control system with two-axis motorized pointing incorporating dual-encoder feedback; and a preprocessing workflow implementing data cleaning, K-Means Clustering (k = 4), Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE) for balanced representation, and standardization. Specialized Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks trained for each identified cluster enable capture of regime-specific temporal dynamics. Experimental validation demonstrates substantial performance improvements, with cluster-specific LSTM models achieving R2 values exceeding 0.92 across all atmospheric regimes. Comparative analysis confirms LSTM superiority over RNN and GRU. Classification performance evaluation reveals exceptional detection capabilities with Probability of Detection ranging from 0.75 to 0.99 and False Alarm Ratios below 0.23. This work presents a scalable approach to weather radar systems for tropical regions with limited ground-based infrastructure, particularly during rapid meteorological transitions characteristic of tropical climates.