# A Prediction Framework of Apple Orchard Yield with Multispectral Remote Sensing and Ground Features

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a framework that combines satellite and ground data to predict apple orchard yields more accurately than traditional methods.

## Contribution

The novel framework integrates multispectral remote sensing and ground features for scalable apple yield prediction and correction.

## Key findings

- The APYieldNet model outperformed other methods with a MAE of 152.68 kg/mu and RMSE of 203.92 kg/mu.
- The YOLO-A model showed superior detection performance for apples and flowers in orchard environments.
- Proportional correction improved small-scale orchard yield predictions to align more closely with real yields.

## Abstract

Aiming at the problem that the current traditional apple yield estimation methods rely on manual investigation and do not make full use of multi-source information, this paper proposes an apple orchard yield prediction framework combining multispectral remote sensing features and ground features. The framework is oriented to the demand of yield prediction at different scales. It can not only realize the prediction of apple yield at the district and county scales, but also modify the prediction results of small-scale orchards based on the acquisition of orchard features. The framework consists of three parts, namely, apple orchard planting area extraction, district and county large-scale yield prediction and small-scale orchard yield prediction correction. (1) During apple orchard planting area extraction, the samples of some apple planting areas in the study area were obtained through field investigation, and the orchard and non-orchard areas were classified and discriminated, providing a spatial basis for the collection of subsequent yield prediction-related data. (2) In the large-scale yield prediction of districts and counties, based on the obtained orchard-planting areas, the corresponding multispectral remote sensing features and environmental features were obtained using Google Earth engine platform. In order to avoid the noise interference caused by local pixel differences, the obtained data were median synthesized, and the feature set was constructed by combining the yield and other information. On this basis, the feature set was divided and sent to Apple Orchard Yield Prediction Network (APYieldNet) for training and testing, and the district and county large-scale yield prediction model was obtained. (3) During the part of small-scale orchard yield prediction correction, the optimal model for large-scale yield prediction at the district and county levels is utilized to forecast the yield of the entire planting area and the internal local sampling areas of the small-scale orchard. Within the local sampling areas, the number of fruits is identified through the YOLO-A model, and the actual yield is estimated based on the empirical single fruit weight as a ground feature, which is used to calculate the correction factor. Finally, the proportional correction method is employed to correct the error in the prediction results of the entire small-scale orchard area, thus obtaining a more accurate yield prediction for the small-scale orchard. The experiment showed that (1) the yield prediction model APYieldNet (MAE = 152.68 kg/mu, RMSE = 203.92 kg/mu) proposed in this paper achieved better results than other methods; (2) the proposed YOLO-A model achieves superior detection performance for apple fruits and flowers in complex orchard environments compared to existing methods; (3) in this paper, through the method of proportional correction, the prediction results of APYieldNet for small-scale orchard are closer to the real yield.