Metabolic Syndrome Components and Cancer Risk in Normal-Weight Subjects: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis in over 18 Million Individuals

TL;DR

This study finds that normal-weight individuals with metabolic issues have a higher cancer risk, especially for certain cancers like gastric and pancreatic cancer.

Contribution

The study is the first to systematically analyze cancer risk in metabolically unhealthy normal-weight individuals using data from over 18 million people.

Findings

Metabolically unhealthy normal-weight individuals have a 20% higher overall cancer risk compared to healthy peers.

Gastric, pancreatic, and colorectal cancers show significantly increased risks in metabolically unhealthy normal-weight individuals.

Central adiposity and glucose metabolism abnormalities are key predictors of increased cancer risk in normal-weight individuals.

Abstract

Background/objectives: Metabolic abnormalities, independent of excess weight, may contribute to cancer risk even among individuals of normal weight, though their role remains unclear. This study sought to ascertain if metabolically unhealthy normal-weight (MUNW) individuals, generally characterized by a normal body mass index alongside the presence of metabolic abnormalities, have higher cancer risk than metabolically healthy peers, to analyze variations in risk across obesity-related cancer types, and to examine which single specific metabolic components can predict cancer independently in normal-weight individuals. Methods: Two authors systematically searched the PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases for longitudinal studies, published from inception to July 2025, that included normal-weight adults, classified participants by metabolic health status, and reported incident cancer outcomes in metabolically unhealthy versus healthy normal-weight groups. Hazard ratio (HR) estimates were extracted from each study and were pooled using random-effects inverse-variance model with empirical Bayes variance estimator. Results: Thirty-five studies involving 18,210,858 participants (56.0% females, mean age = 53.8 years) were included. A total of 280,828 new cancer cases were diagnosed during follow-up (mean = 10.6 years). In comparison with metabolically healthy normal-weight individuals, MUNW individuals had a 20% higher risk of cancer (HR = 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13–1.28). Increased risks were observed for gastric cancer (HR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.04–1.87), pancreatic cancer (HR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.21–1.54), and colorectal cancer (HR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.14–1.57), which were the cancer types showing statistically significant associations in subgroup analyses. Normal-weight participants presenting specific metabolic factors like central adiposity or glucose metabolism abnormalities had a 20% (HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.13–1.37) and 23% (HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.06–1.41) increased cancer risk, respectively. Conclusions: MUNW individuals are at higher risk of cancer, with specific metabolic abnormalities, particularly central adiposity and impaired glucose regulation, emerging as the factors most strongly associated with increased risk in normal-weight individuals. Routine metabolic screening and detailed phenotyping are crucial to identify these risks.

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