Predicting Phloeosinus cupressi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Phloeosinus) Distribution for Management Planning Under Climate Change
Yu Cao, Kaitong Xiao, Lei Ling, Qiang Wu, Beibei Huang, Xiaosu Deng, Yingxuan Cao, Hang Ning, Hui Chen

TL;DR
This study predicts the future spread of an invasive bark beetle, Phloeosinus cupressi, under climate change to help manage its impact on Cupressus trees globally.
Contribution
The study introduces a predictive model using CLIMEX and random forest to forecast the beetle's distribution under future climate scenarios.
Findings
Suitable habitats for P. cupressi are projected to expand northward under future climate conditions.
Climatic variables like coldest-quarter precipitation and annual temperature range are key drivers of distribution.
Regions like southern Europe and South China may see reduced suitability, while areas in Argentina and Australia may become more suitable.
Abstract
Phloeosinus cupressi Hopkins poses a serious threat to forest ecosystems and urban greenery worldwide. While currently absent from China, future climate change could alter its distribution and exacerbate its damage. In this study, we employed CLIMEX and random forest models to predict the global potential distribution of this pest based on its host Cupressus, under both current and future climate scenarios, thus quantifying the impacts of climate change. Under future climate projections, the total suitable area is expected to expand. Its native habitat is projected to experience significant northward expansion, posing a major challenge for forest management. Our predictions provide crucial evidence for the current and future global potential distribution of P. cupressi, serving as an important reference for identifying regions susceptible to potential infestation by this pest.…
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Taxonomy
TopicsForest Insect Ecology and Management · Species Distribution and Climate Change · Entomological Studies and Ecology
