Reassessing China’s Regional Modernization Based on a Grey-Based Evaluation Framework and Spatial Disparity Analysis

TL;DR

This paper evaluates modernization in Chinese provinces using a new framework, revealing regional disparities and offering policy insights.

Contribution

A novel grey-based evaluation framework integrating multiple analytical methods to assess Chinese-style modernization.

Findings

Eastern provinces lead in modernization but show internal volatility.

Western provinces face widening disparities despite regional clustering.

The framework provides insights for targeted policy interventions.

Abstract

Understanding regional disparities in Chinese modernization is essential for achieving coordinated and sustainable development. This study develops a multi-dimensional evaluation framework, integrating grey relational analysis, entropy weighting, and TOPSIS to assess provincial modernization across China from 2018 to 2023. The framework operationalizes Chinese-style modernization through five dimensions: population quality, economic strength, social development, ecological sustainability, innovation and governance, capturing both material and institutional aspects of development. Using K-Means clustering, kernel density estimation, and convergence analysis, the study examines spatial and temporal patterns of modernization. Results reveal pronounced regional heterogeneity: eastern provinces lead in overall modernization but display internal volatility, central provinces exhibit gradual convergence, and western provinces face widening disparities. Intra-regional analysis highlights uneven development even within geographic clusters, reflecting differential access to resources, governance capacity, and innovation infrastructure. These findings are interpreted through modernization theory, linking observed patterns to governance models, regional development trajectories, and policy coordination. The proposed framework offers a rigorous, data-driven tool for monitoring modernization progress, diagnosing regional bottlenecks, and informing targeted policy interventions. This study demonstrates the methodological value of integrating grey system theory with multi-criteria decision-making and clustering analysis, providing both theoretical insights and practical guidance for advancing balanced and sustainable Chinese-style modernization.

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