# Prediction of Potential Suitable Habitats of Cupressus duclouxiana Under Climate Change Based on Biomod2 Ensemble Models

## TL;DR

This study predicts how climate change will affect the future habitats of Cupressus duclouxiana in China, finding that warming temperatures may expand suitable areas northward.

## Contribution

The study introduces an ensemble modeling approach using biomod2 to predict climate-driven habitat shifts of C. duclouxiana with high accuracy.

## Key findings

- Minimum temperature of the coldest month is the primary factor limiting C. duclouxiana distribution.
- Climate warming is projected to expand suitable habitats northward and northwestward by the late 21st century.
- The SSP3-7.0 scenario predicts the largest habitat expansion for the species.

## Abstract

Cupressus duclouxiana is an important tree species for afforestation and ecological restoration in southwestern China, where it contributes to soil stabilization and regional forestry development. However, climate change may substantially alter the areas where this species can grow in the future. In this study, we used biomod2 ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the current and future suitable habitats of C. duclouxiana across China under different climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that winter temperature, especially the Minimum Temperature of Coldest Month, is the key factor limiting its distribution, while climate warming is expected to expand overall habitat availability. At present, the most suitable regions are mainly located in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xizang (Tibet). In the future, suitable habitats are projected to shift northward and northwestward, with new potential areas emerging in Gansu and Inner Mongolia. These findings suggest that climate warming may create new opportunities for the cultivation of C. duclouxiana and highlight the need for climate-adaptive planning to support sustainable afforestation and ecological conservation.

Cupressus duclouxiana is an ecologically and economically important conifer endemic to southwestern China (e.g., central Yunnan and southern Sichuan), yet its potential distribution under future climate change remains insufficiently understood. In this study, we employed an ensemble species distribution modeling framework implemented in biomod2 to predict the current and future suitable habitats of C. duclouxiana across China. A total of 154 occurrence records and 17 key environmental variables were used to construct ensemble models integrating twelve algorithms. The ensemble model showed high predictive performance (TSS = 0.99, Kappa = 0.98). Temperature-related variables dominated habitat suitability, with the minimum temperature of the coldest month identified as the primary limiting factor, accounting for 44.1%. Under current climatic conditions, suitable habitats are mainly concentrated in southwestern China, particularly in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xizang (Tibet). Future projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) consistently indicate habitat expansion by the late 21st century, accompanied by pronounced northward and northwestward range shifts. The largest expansion is projected under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, highlighting the sensitivity of C. duclouxiana to intermediate warming trajectories. Overall, climate warming is expected to increase habitat availability while reshaping the spatial distribution of C. duclouxiana across China. These findings provide scientific support for climate-adaptive afforestation planning and conservation management, and offer broader insights into the responses of subtropical coniferous species to future climate change.