# The Vulnerability of Chinese Theaceae Species Under Future Climate Change

## TL;DR

This study evaluates how 122 Chinese Theaceae species are vulnerable to future climate change, finding that sensitivity to temperature is a key factor and that current protected areas are insufficient to cover vulnerable regions.

## Contribution

The study introduces a comprehensive vulnerability assessment integrating species sensitivity and habitat exposure for Theaceae species in China.

## Key findings

- Species vulnerability is primarily driven by sensitivity rather than habitat exposure.
- High sensitivity to temperature variables and high exposure to precipitation variables were observed.
- High-vulnerability areas are concentrated in western and eastern China, but protected areas cover less than 17% of these regions.

## Abstract

Understanding and predicting the vulnerability of species to future climate change with their spatial distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation. In this study, we assessed the vulnerability of 122 Chinese Theaceae species under future climate change, as well as their spatial distribution patterns, using multifaceted analyses by integrating species sensitivity and habitat exposure rather than only focusing on habitat exposure. As expected, we found that (1) species vulnerability was mainly determined by species sensitivity rather than habitat exposure; (2) these species exhibit a high sensitivity and vulnerability to temperature-related variables, while exhibiting a high exposure to precipitation-related variables; and (3) high-vulnerability areas mainly distributed in western and eastern China. However, China’s protected area network covers no more than 17% of the high-vulnerability areas and no more than 15% of the median- and low-vulnerability areas, respectively. These findings should inform a more useful dialogue determining the vulnerability of 122 Chinese Theaceae species and consequently guiding effective prioritizing conservation to offset the negative effects of future climate change.

Assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change is currently one of the hot issues in ecology and conservation biology. Although species sensitivity and adaptability play a crucial role in determining species vulnerability to climate change, most studies have only focused on habitat exposure, hindering a comprehensive understanding of species vulnerability to climate change and the implementation of effective conservation actions and policies. Here, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of the species sensitivity, habitat exposure and vulnerability of 122 Chinese Theaceae species and the spatial distribution patterns of their sensitivity, habitat exposure and vulnerability, as well as the effectiveness of China’s protected area network in protecting these species under future climate change. Our analyses suggest that species vulnerability was mainly determined by species sensitivity rather than habitat exposure. In addition, these species generally exhibit a high sensitivity and vulnerability to temperature-related variables, such as the annual mean temperature and temperature annual range, while exhibiting a high exposure to precipitation variables, such as total annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality. Furthermore, our analyses show that the high-vulnerability areas are mainly distributed in western and eastern China. However, no more than 17% of the high-vulnerability areas would be covered by China’s protected area network and no more than 15% of the median- and low-vulnerability areas would be covered by China’s protected area network. These findings can contribute to a new understanding of the vulnerability of the 122 Chinese Theaceae species to future climate change and guide effective conservation prioritizing in a rapidly changing climate.