Assessing the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of human brucellosis in Northern Xinjiang, China (2015–2023)

TL;DR

This study examines how brucellosis cases in northern Xinjiang changed from 2015 to 2023 and identifies local factors influencing its spread.

Contribution

The study introduces a zonal management approach for brucellosis control based on spatially varying risk factors.

Findings

Brucellosis incidence in northern Xinjiang decreased until 2020 then increased sharply.

Higher animal husbandry output and temperature correlate with higher brucellosis incidence in specific regions.

GDP growth has a protective effect against brucellosis, but regional factors vary significantly.

Abstract

Brucellosis has long been a major public health concern in western pastoral areas. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of human brucellosis in northern Xinjiang and analyze the spatial heterogeneity of factors influencing its incidence in different counties and districts.

The JPR (Joinpoint regression model) and spatial autocorrelation analysis were employed to capture the potential spatiotemporal distribution changes of human brucellosis in northern Xinjiang from 2015 to 2023. Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) was established to analyze the spatiotemporal correlation between the incidence of human brucellosis and relevant influencing factors.

The incidence of brucellosis in northern Xinjiang from 2015 to 2023 showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a turning point in 2020. The incidence decreased from 47.92 per 100,000 in 2015 to 14.20 per 100,000 in 2020, with an average annual decrease of 21.68%. Subsequently, it increased to 38.70 per 100,000 in 2023, with an average monthly increase of 39.97%. The results of the MGWR model indicated that a higher regional gross output value of animal husbandry was associated with a higher incidence of human brucellosis, which was more prominent in Hami City and Turpan City. Regions with longer sunshine hours had a higher incidence of brucellosis, especially in the Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture and Bortala Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. A higher beef production was related to a higher incidence of human brucellosis, which was more evident in Turpan City, Hami City, and the Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. A higher average regional temperature was associated with a higher incidence of human brucellosis. An increase in GDP had a significant protective effect on the incidence of human brucellosis.

Human brucellosis remains a serious problem in northern Xinjiang, and its incidence has been on the rise in recent years. Meteorological and social factors influence the incidence of brucellosis spatially heterogeneously, with the direction and magnitude of their effects varying significantly across specific geographic locations in Northern Xinjiang. Consequently, we recommend a shift from uniform policies to zonal management, prioritizing interventions based on local dominant risk factors (e.g., sheep population control in Bayingolin, occupational protection in high-livestock-production areas) to optimize resource allocation and control effectiveness.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41182-026-00899-6.

Figures