Trends and Levels in Men’s and Women’s Fertility Goals in the United States

TL;DR

The study examines how men and women in the U.S. have changed their fertility goals over time, revealing trends that could impact future birth rates.

Contribution

The paper provides new insights into trends in men's fertility goals, which are often overlooked in fertility research.

Findings

Men are more likely than women to intend to have another child and to delay childbearing.

Both men and women show declining fertility intentions, especially early in life.

Increases in intended childlessness and delayed childbearing suggest potential future fertility declines.

Abstract

Understanding trends in fertility goals (attitudes, desires, intentions, etc.), as well as variation by age and parity, is important for understanding current U.S. fertility and assessing likely future outcomes. Both men’s and women’s childbearing goals shape fertility behavior. However, most research on fertility goals focuses on women, and little is known about how men’s fertility goals may have changed over time or vary by age and parity. In this paper, we draw from the U.S. National Survey of Family Growth 2011–2019 to estimate trends in age- and parity-specific indicators for both men and women of (i) the proportion of positive prospective fertility intentions, (ii) the timing of prospective fertility intentions, and (iii) the retrospective reporting of fertility desires. Results show important differences and similarities in men’s and women’s fertility goals, as well as a mixed picture regarding gender convergence or divergence in fertility goals, depending on the exact outcome analyzed. Men are more likely to intend a(nother) child and have greater intentions to delay childbearing, both at the aggregate and across age and parity. Prospective intentions declined for both men and women, but at a higher rate for women, and the declines were proportionally larger early in the life course. For both men and women, we find increases in intended childlessness and intentions to delay childbearing. These two processes together point to potential future declines in cohort fertility, both through unrealized fertility and voluntary childlessness. We conclude by discussing the benefits and challenges of including men in fertility research.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-025-09989-5.

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