# Evaluating the accuracy, reliability, and agreement of the İşcan and Hartnett age estimation methods on a contemporary European skeletal sample of fourth ribs

## TL;DR

This study compares two methods for estimating age from human ribs, finding one more accurate but both needing better standardization and training.

## Contribution

The study provides empirical validation of the İşcan and Hartnett age estimation methods using a contemporary European sample and highlights the need for standardization.

## Key findings

- The İşcan method had a 62% success rate in age estimation, outperforming the Hartnett method's 38%.
- Both methods showed moderate intra- and interoperator agreement, as measured by Cohen’s Kappa.
- The İşcan method's accuracy improved when prioritizing the highest observed phase.

## Abstract

This study evaluates the accuracy and reliability of the İşcan and Hartnett methods for estimating the age of adults based on rib analysis, using a sample of 127 pairs of ribs from a contemporary European population. The study employed a double-blind design with repeated measurements conducted by two observers. The İşcan method demonstrated a higher success rate, accurately assigning age in 62% of cases, compared to 38% for the Hartnett method. Both methods exhibited moderate intra- and interoperator agreement, as measured by Cohen’s Kappa. A detailed statistical analysis, including logistic regression, revealed significant discrepancies in phase-assignment accuracy between the two methods. The İşcan method’s success rate improved when prioritizing the highest observed phase, indicating potential for enhancing accuracy through strategic methodological adjustments. The findings underscore the importance of operator training and the need for consistent application of criteria. This research highlights the critical need for standardization in age estimation methods and suggests potential improvements for forensic and anthropological applications. The study contributes valuable insights into the strengths and limitations of widely used skeletal age estimation techniques, with implications for improving methodological consistency and accuracy in forensic investigations.

Key points
 Human age can be estimated through the study of the fourth rib in skeletal remains; the two most commonly used methods are those of İşcan and Hartnett.Both the İşcan and Hartnett methods showed moderate inter- and intraoperator agreement.The İşcan method exhibited significant overlap in age ranges, particularly in later phases, which can lead to underestimation of age.The findings emphasize the importance of extensive training for operators using these methods.

Human age can be estimated through the study of the fourth rib in skeletal remains; the two most commonly used methods are those of İşcan and Hartnett.

Both the İşcan and Hartnett methods showed moderate inter- and intraoperator agreement.

The İşcan method exhibited significant overlap in age ranges, particularly in later phases, which can lead to underestimation of age.

The findings emphasize the importance of extensive training for operators using these methods.