# The evolution of public health statistical modeling approaches and how to advance their incorporation into modern arboviral surveillance

## TL;DR

This paper reviews the history of disease modeling and suggests ways to better integrate these models into public health efforts for arboviruses.

## Contribution

The paper proposes strategies to incorporate modern statistical models into public health practice for arboviral surveillance.

## Key findings

- Disease modeling has evolved but remains largely academic.
- Arboviruses are often excluded from public health modeling.
- Recommendations are provided for integrating models into practice.

## Abstract

Statistical modeling of infectious disease transmission patterns has been in existence since the mid-1700s, evolving in their utility as the scientific and technological revolutions progressed. Despite the expansion of emerging mathematical and statistical methodologies over the past 250 yr, their usage has largely remained restricted to academic settings. This forum article will discuss the evolution of disease modeling techniques, the most common types of models in use today, and recommendations on how key archetypes can be incorporated into future public health practice. With the recent global impetus to predict and forecast novel pathogens, this article raises the question: Why are endemic arboviruses not included in public health modeling efforts, and how can medical entomologists promote their inclusion?

Graphical Abstract