# Predicting the Potential Spread of Invasive Reptiles From Hong Kong and Taiwan to Other Regions of China

## TL;DR

This study predicts how five invasive reptiles from Hong Kong and Taiwan might spread to mainland China, highlighting the need for proactive biosecurity measures.

## Contribution

The study provides new predictions on the future spread of invasive reptiles in China under climate change scenarios.

## Key findings

- Anolis sagrei has the highest invasion risk with the widest predicted distribution across China.
- Future climate scenarios show significant habitat expansion and northward shifts for all species.
- Temperature and precipitation are the main factors influencing the distribution of invasive reptiles.

## Abstract

Biological invasions pose significant threats to global ecosystems, with invasive reptiles causing particular concern due to their increasing spread through international trade and potential range expansion under climate change. This study investigated the potential spread of five invasive reptile species that have established breeding populations in Hong Kong and Taiwan but have not yet invaded mainland China. Using the Maximum Entropy algorithm in Species Distribution Models, we integrated global occurrence records with current and future environmental variables to predict suitable habitats and potential distribution changes under different climate scenarios. We assess invasion risk based on the current and future distribution ranges of suitable habitats for invasive species. Our study results indicate the brown anole (
Anolis sagrei
) has the widest predicted distribution range, with suitable habitats across most regions of China, thus posing the highest invasion risk. The veiled chameleon (
Chamaeleo calyptratus
), Brook's house gecko (
Hemidactylus brookii
), and the green iguana (
Iguana iguana
) also present elevated invasion risks, as their suitable habitats are primarily located in southern China. In contrast, the monarch gecko (
Gekko monarchus
) has extremely low invasion potential, with only a small number of suitable habitats found along the southern coastal regions of China. Temperature and precipitation emerged as the primary factors influencing species distribution. Future climate projections indicate that the suitable habitats for all species will significantly expand, with distribution centers notably shifting northward and inland, particularly under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. This study underscores the importance of species‐specific management strategies and enhanced biosecurity measures, especially in regions identified as high‐risk areas. It provides valuable evidence for developing proactive measures to prevent the spread of these high‐risk invasive reptiles from Hong Kong and Taiwan into mainland China.

This study used species distribution models that combined global occurrence records with current and future environmental variables to predict the potential distributions of five invasive reptile species that have established breeding populations in Hong Kong and Taiwan but have not yet invaded mainland China. The results show that
Anolis sagrei
poses the highest invasion risk with the widest predicted distribution, followed by
Chamaeleo calyptratus
,
Hemidactylus brookii
, and
Iguana iguana
, while
Gekko monarchus
has very limited invasion potential, with temperature and precipitation being the primary factors influencing distribution. Under future climate scenarios—especially high greenhouse gas emission pathways—suitable habitats for all species are predicted to significantly expand, with distribution centers shifting notably northward and inland, underscoring the need for species‐specific management strategies and enhanced biosecurity measures.