A Long‐Term Projection for Emergency Ambulance Services Demand in Taipei and the Related Effects by Temperature

TL;DR

This study projects emergency ambulance service demand in Taipei from 2015 to 2051 and examines how temperature affects this demand.

Contribution

The study introduces a long-term projection model for EAS demand incorporating demographic and temperature changes.

Findings

EAS demand for those over 65 in 2051 is underestimated by 42%-90% without considering age-gender structure changes.

Younger age groups' EAS demand is overestimated by 35%-55% when ignoring demographic shifts.

Temperature-EAS demand relationship shows a significant upward shift and increased curvature by 2051.

Abstract

This study aims to project the yearly emergency ambulance service (EAS) demand for Taipei from 2015 to 2051. The effects of daily average temperature on EAS demand in 2036 and 2051 will also be projected.

Over 140,000 EAS patient records in 2015 were obtained from the Taipei Fire Department in order to conduct the EAS demand projection. The projection was computed accounting for changes in the age‐gender structure compared to the base year (2015). The relationship between daily average temperature and EAS demand in 2036 and 2051 was further explored by including and excluding age‐gender structure changes.

Without accounting for changes in the age‐gender structure, the 2051 EAS demand for age groups over 65 was consistently underestimated by 42%–90%, while that for younger age groups was overestimated by 35%–55%. In addition, the projected quadratic curve for describing the relationship between average daily temperature and EAS demand in 2051 showed a significant upward shift and increase in curvature when accounting for changes in the age‐gender structure.

With an accurate long‐term projection for EAS demand in Taipei city and other regions in Taiwan, the government can design strategies for improving the EAS system in order to deal with the rapidly aging population.

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