The Response of Krascheninnikovia ceratoides (L.) Gueldenst. to Environmental Changes Since the Mid‐Holocene in the Tibetan Antelope Breeding Ground of the Western Kunlun Mountains

TL;DR

This study examines how the habitat of a key food plant for Tibetan antelopes has changed over time and how it might respond to future climate scenarios.

Contribution

The study introduces a novel integration of multiple modeling techniques to predict habitat changes and identify conservation gaps for Tibetan antelopes.

Findings

The mean diurnal range was the most influential factor in the distribution of K. ceratoides.

Suitable habitats for K. ceratoides have shifted from southeast to northwest and back over time due to warming.

The current habitat quality in the study area is low, with conservation gaps near existing protected zones.

Abstract

Krascheninnikovia ceratoides
(L.) Gueldenst., the primary food source for the western population of
Pantholops hodgsonii
(Tibetan antelope) during their breeding period in the Western Kunlun Mountains, plays a crucial role in maintaining alpine ecosystems. Herein, we focused on this species and used optimized MaxEnt and biomod2 models to predict its potential distribution ranges during the Mid‐Holocene, current period, and future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5), incorporating both climatic and soil factors and performing cross‐validation with the XGBoost‐SHAP model. Additionally, we analyzed the centroid migration characteristics of suitable habitats under different scenarios and identified conservation gaps for Tibetan antelopes using the InVEST Habitat Quality module. The results showed that both biomod2 and XGBoost‐SHAP models exhibited high accuracy: biomod2 had AUC values > 0.98, TSS values > 0.85, and Kappa values > 0.6; the XGBoost‐SHAP model had small RMSE and MAE for both training and test sets, with R
2 > 0.98. Analysis of environmental factor contributions revealed that mean diurnal range (bio2) had the highest contribution to the distribution of
K. ceratoides
, followed by annual mean temperature (bio1), annual precipitation (bio12), and topsoil clay fraction (t_clay). Currently, the total potential suitable habitat area of this species is 0.5745 × 104 km2, accounting for 35.6855% of the study area, and is mainly concentrated in the western and central regions. Among different climate scenarios, the Mid‐Holocene had the largest suitable habitat area (0.7436 × 104 km2, 46.1838% of the study area), followed by the RCP4.5 scenario. Warming to some extent promoted the expansion of suitable habitats, but the newly added areas were mostly low suitable habitats, which may face resource competition pressure. With rising temperatures, the centroid of suitable habitats generally migrated from the southeast to high altitude areas in the northwest, then shifted back to the southeast over time. Furthermore, the average habitat quality index of the study area was only 0.277, indicating a relatively harsh ecological environment, and conservation gaps for Tibetan antelopes were concentrated in the southern areas adjacent to existing protected zones. This study provides a scientific basis for the targeted conservation of
K. ceratoides
and the improvement of conservation gaps for Tibetan antelopes.

We analyzed changes in the suitable habitat of K.ceratoides, which is the main food source of Tibetan antelopes, within the Tibetan antelope breeding grounds in the Western Kunlun Mountains. The study covered the period from the Mid‐Holocene to future projections and also examined the driving factors and shifting directions of the suitable habitat. Finally, we used in INVEST habitat quality to supplement protection gaps.

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