A modelling assessment of the impact of control measures on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission in poultry in Great Britain
Christopher N. Davis, Edward M. Hill, Chris P. Jewell, Kristyna Rysava, Robin N. Thompson, Michael J. Tildesley, Jennifer A. Flegg, Konstantin B. Blyuss, Jennifer A. Flegg, Konstantin B. Blyuss, Jennifer A. Flegg, Konstantin B. Blyuss, Jennifer A. Flegg, Konstantin B. Blyuss
TL;DR
This study models how control measures can reduce the spread of bird flu in British poultry and lower health risks.
Contribution
A spatial transmission model calibrated to real outbreak data to assess the impact of control measures on avian influenza spread.
Findings
Reducing susceptibility around infected premises significantly lowers the number of infected poultry premises.
Localized interventions like enhanced biosecurity or vaccination can curb transmission effectively.
Effective control strategies are crucial to limit avian influenza circulation and public health threats.
Abstract
Since 2020, large-scale outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in Great Britain have resulted in substantial poultry mortality and economic losses. Alongside the costs, the risk of circulation leading to a viral reassortment that causes zoonotic spillover raises additional concerns. However, the precise mechanisms driving transmission between poultry premises and the impact of potential control measures in Great Britain, such as vaccination, are not fully understood. We have developed a spatial transmission model for the spread of HPAI in poultry premises calibrated to infected premises data for the 2022–23 season using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our results indicate that reducing the susceptibility of the premises surrounding an identified infected premises (for example, through enhanced biosecurity measures and/or vaccination) can substantially reduce the overall…
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Taxonomy
TopicsInfluenza Virus Research Studies · Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology · Salmonella and Campylobacter epidemiology