# Global trend analysis and risk evolution of asbestos-related ovarian cancer: a population-based study and future prediction (1990–2021)

## TL;DR

Asbestos exposure is linked to ovarian cancer deaths, but its impact is declining over time, according to a global study using data from 1990 to 2021.

## Contribution

This study quantifies the global epidemiological burden of asbestos-related ovarian cancer and projects future trends using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

## Key findings

- Asbestos exposure caused 5,587 ovarian cancer deaths in 2021, a 51.2% increase from 1990.
- The age-standardized mortality rate and DALY rate for asbestos-related ovarian cancer decreased significantly from 1990 to 2021.
- Future projections suggest declining incidence and mortality rates of asbestos-related ovarian cancer over the next 25 years.

## Abstract

Existing evidence demonstrates that asbestos exposure is an environmental risk factor for ovarian cancer (OC). Using comprehensive data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study, this research quantified the epidemiological burden of asbestos-related ovarian cancer. In 2021, asbestos exposure accounted for 5,587 OC deaths—a 51.2% increase from 1990. However, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased from 0.11 (95% UI: 0.05–0.17) to 0.07 (95% UI: 0.03–0.11) per 100,000 people between 1990 and 2021. Similarly, the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate declined from 1.93 (95% UI: 0.92–3.03) to 1.15 (95% UI: 0.56–1.85) per 100,000 people, reflecting a 40.4% reduction in total DALYs. Projections based on the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model indicate declining incidence and mortality rates over the next 25 years. These findings suggest asbestos’ role as an independent OC risk factor is diminishing, warranting further investigation into its synergistic effects and co-pathogenesis with other etiological factors.