# Democratic Deterrence of Middle Powers in Great Power Rivalry: The Case for Indonesia

## TL;DR

This paper argues that Indonesia, as a democratic middle power, can help deter autocracies by promoting democratic values compatible with Islam and strengthening regional cooperation.

## Contribution

The paper introduces a framework for Indonesia to enhance democratic deterrence through domestic consolidation and strategic foreign policy.

## Key findings

- Indonesia can strengthen democratic deterrence by promoting emancipative values aligned with religion.
- Democratic advantage can be integrated into traditional foreign policy without contradiction.
- Western support is crucial for Indonesia's stabilizing role in the Indo-Pacific.

## Abstract

Shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Biden rightly characterized the current era of great power competition as one that occurs between democracies vs autocracies; thus, democracies need a new kind of deterrence concept against emboldened autocrats, as exemplified in Mikael Wigell’s ‘democratic deterrence’ that calls for greater apprehension of –and confidence in—democratic advantage argument in the public consciousness. Democratic middle powers in general could play an important part in the aforementioned democratic deterrence in their own respective capacities, and the third largest democracy, in particular, has the potential to play a unique role in promoting a democratic advantage narrative, especially in the case of the compatibility of democracy with Islam. This study makes three recommendations for Indonesia to fulfill its potential role. First, Indonesia needs to accelerate its democratic consolidation process by raising the public’s emancipative values, especially through cognitive mobilization but allied with religions. Second, democratic advantage apprehension must be integrated within traditional foreign policy principles, as the two are not at all contradictory. Finally, the West in general, and United States in particular, need to be more appreciative and supportive of Indonesia’s effort to play a middle-power stabilizing role in the Indo-Pacific, whether in the forms of economic or defense cooperation.