# Exploring the role of extreme climate events (ECEs) in the incidence of respiratory disease in South Africa

## TL;DR

This study explores how extreme climate events in South Africa affect respiratory disease rates over 12 years.

## Contribution

The study provides new insights into how extreme climate events influence respiratory health claims in South Africa.

## Key findings

- Respiratory claims increased or decreased after extreme climate events, with variations ranging from +16% to +121% and -5% to -178%.
- Seasonal trends had a more consistent impact on respiratory health than individual extreme events.
- No distinct clustering of significant events was observed across seasons or years.

## Abstract

In recent decades, escalating extreme climate events (ECEs) have raised significant concerns regarding their effects on public health in South Africa, particularly respiratory illness. This study examined the relationship between ECEs and respiratory health outcomes over a 12-year period (2008–2019). A total of 48 ECEs were analyzed, of which 28 occurred in regions reporting more than 100 medical insurance claims for respiratory diseases. These events included storms, heatwaves, cold waves, floods, and tornadoes. Using a two-week lag period, we assessed their short-term association with respiratory claims. The findings revealed both increases and decreases in claims following ECEs, yet seasonal epidemiological trends exerted a more consistent and pronounced influence on respiratory health than individual extreme events. Percentage variations for statistically significant events ranged from approximately + 16% to + 121%, while decreases ranged from − 5% to − 178%. Although certain events displayed notable impacts, no distinct clustering was observed across seasons or years. These results underscore the importance of strengthening seasonal preparedness measures alongside climate-sensitive surveillance systems. Integrated approaches that address both seasonal and extreme climate risks are vital to safeguard vulnerable populations amid increasing climate variability in South Africa.