# Assessing Habitat Suitability and Range Dynamics of Syzygium alternifolium (Wight) Walp Under Future Climatic Scenarios

## TL;DR

This study models the current and future habitat of an endangered tree species in India to guide conservation under climate change.

## Contribution

The novel use of MaxEnt modeling to project future habitat expansion of Syzygium alternifolium under climate scenarios highlights conservation gaps.

## Key findings

- The model predicted a potential 122.87% increase in suitable habitat by 2070 under the SSP585 scenario.
- Most future suitable habitats are projected to be outside protected areas, indicating conservation challenges.
- Slope, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and temperature of the wettest quarter were key predictors of habitat suitability.

## Abstract

Syzygium alternifolium (Wight) Walp is an ecologically and economically important tree species of dry deciduous forests of the Eastern Ghats. The species is classified as Endangered on the IUCN Red List under the criteria A2cd ver 3.1 due to declining populations threatened by habitat degradation and climate change. This research utilizes MaxEnt‐based species distribution modeling to assess its current and future habitat suitability under two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) for the years 2050 and 2070, employing the MIROC6 global circulation model. The model demonstrated high performance (AUC = 0.93), with slope, precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), and temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) identified as critical predictors. Currently, the extent of suitable habitats is limited (1262.39 km2), with 53.02% situated within protected areas. Projections suggest a steady increase in suitable area, potentially reaching up to 122.87% by 2070 (SSP585), although this expansion is significantly directed towards unprotected landscapes, indicating possible conservation gaps. These results underscore the necessity for proactive initiatives, including long‐term monitoring, eco‐physiological and genetic evaluations, and the incorporation of distribution modeling results into biodiversity action plans, forest management strategies, and regional climate adaptation frameworks to ensure the species' survival in light of future climate scenarios.

We modeled the current and future habitat suitability of the endangered tree species Syzygium alternifolium using MaxEnt under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) for 2050 and 2070. The model showed high accuracy (AUC = 0.93), with significant future range expansion projected outside protected areas, highlighting urgent conservation gaps. Our findings support integrating species distribution modeling into long‐term biodiversity and forest management strategies under climate change.