# Predictive Factors of Early and One-Year Mortality in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis

## TL;DR

This study identifies factors predicting early and one-year mortality in acute pancreatitis patients, emphasizing the value of dynamic scoring systems and biomarkers like Procalcitonin.

## Contribution

The study introduces the enhanced predictive value of reassessing severity scores and Procalcitonin monitoring within 48 hours for acute pancreatitis mortality.

## Key findings

- APACHE II and BISAP scores at 48 hours showed excellent accuracy in predicting mortality.
- Procalcitonin outperformed C-reactive protein as a mortality predictor from 48 hours onward.
- Sepsis, severe AP, and prolonged ICU stay were key determinants of both early and one-year mortality.

## Abstract

Background/Objectives: Acute Pancreatitis (AP) is an unpredictable inflammatory disease associated with high morbidity and significant mortality, particularly in severe forms. Early death is primarily linked to Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and Multi-Organ Failure (MOF). The objective of this study was to identify objective clinical and laboratory predictors of early and one-year mortality in AP patients and to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of commonly used severity scoring systems. Methods: This prospective, observational study enrolled 50 adult patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at the University Hospital Center Bežaniska Kosa. Patients with chronic pancreatitis, trauma-induced AP, or late presentation were excluded. Severity scores (APACHE II, BISAP, Ranson, Pancreas) and biomarkers (C-reactive protein, Procalcitonin) were collected at admission (0 h) and dynamically at 48 h, 72 h and day 7. Endpoints were early (in-hospital) and one-year mortality. Results: Overall mortality was 16% (n = 8). Mortality was significantly associated with sepsis/septic shock (p < 0.001), severe AP (p = 0.001), prolonged mechanical ventilation, and ICU stay. At admission, APACHE II (AUROC 0.813) and BISAP (AUROC 0.807) showed good accuracy. Reassessment at 48 h markedly improved prediction: APACHE II achieved excellent value (AUROC 0.917), and the Ranson score became a strong predictor (p < 0.001). Procalcitonin (PCT) was identified as a significant and superior predictor of mortality from 48 h onwards (p < 0.001), outperforming CRP. One-year survival was significantly shorter among patients with sepsis, septic shock, severe AP, and prolonged ICU stay. Conclusions: Dynamic assessment using clinical scoring systems, particularly APACHE II and BISAP within the first 48 h, provides reliable mortality prediction in acute pancreatitis. The presence of sepsis, severe disease, and the need for prolonged organ support are key mortality determinants. Serial PCT monitoring offers sensitive, incremental value for risk stratification and guiding intensive care decisions in both short- and long-term outcomes.