# Schistosomiasis japonica transmission dynamics: mathematical modeling in guiding One Health approach control strategies

## TL;DR

This study uses mathematical modeling to explore how to control schistosomiasis japonica in the Philippines by evaluating different public health strategies.

## Contribution

A novel One Health mathematical model is developed and calibrated with field data to guide schistosomiasis control strategies.

## Key findings

- Baseline human schistosomiasis prevalence is estimated at 20% in endemic areas.
- Combining WaSH, chemotherapy, and pasture prohibition could reduce human prevalence to 0.09% by 2030.
- Snail-to-human transmission rate and snail shedding rate are the most influential factors in disease spread.

## Abstract

Schistosomiasis (SCH) japonica remains a persistent public health concern in the Philippines despite continuing control efforts. This study aims to examine the transmission dynamics of SCH japonica and evaluate different intervention strategies using a One Health modeling approach, with the goal of supporting feasible control and elimination targets.

We developed a compartmental mathematical model calibrated using field survey data collected in 2022 from eight endemic barangays in Agusan del Sur and Surigao del Norte. The dataset included SCH prevalence, egg excretion levels in humans and animals quantified through Kato-Katz, modified McMaster, and sedimentation techniques, and household distance to potential transmission sites. Multiple intervention strategies were examined, including human and animal chemotherapy, WaSH (water access, sanitation, and hygiene) adoption, pasture prohibition, vegetation clearing, and snail control. Sensitivity analysis using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) was performed to identify influential transmission drivers.

The model estimates baseline prevalence at approximately 20% in humans across the study areas. Under medium WaSH adoption, human prevalence is projected to decline to approximately 1.01% by 2030, whereas high WaSH coverage further reduces prevalence to 0.64%. Combining WaSH and pasture prohibition alongside chemotherapy is projected to reduce human prevalence to 0.09% and animal prevalence to 0.10% by 2030. Sensitivity analysis identified snail-to-human transmission rate (PRCC = 0.612) and snail shedding rate (PRCC = 0.607) as the most influential parameters.

Integrated strategies focusing on WaSH, reduced animal exposure, and targeted chemotherapy offer the most effective pathway toward achieving World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) 2030 SCH targets. Implementation should be strengthened through health education, behavioral interventions, mechanization support, and active Local Government Unit (LGU) participation.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-025-01404-7.