# Potential Distribution Pattern and Ecological Suitability Analysis of Hippophae Tibetana Schltdl in China Based on the MaxEnt Model

## TL;DR

This study predicts the future habitat distribution of Hippophae tibetana in China using climate models and finds that climate change may expand suitable areas but also pose risks.

## Contribution

The study applies the MaxEnt model to forecast the ecological suitability of Hippophae tibetana under future climate scenarios in China.

## Key findings

- H. tibetana's current suitable habitats are concentrated in three key regions in China.
- Future climate change is expected to expand suitable habitats northeastward.
- Extreme climate scenarios may reduce or shift suitable habitats for H. tibetana.

## Abstract

Hippophae tibetana Schltdl, a valuable plant with significant edible, medicinal, and ecological restoration functions, has long attracted considerable attention. This study, based on the MaxEnt model, combines current and future climate scenarios (2050s and 2070s) to predict the distribution of suitable habitats for
H. tibetana
. The results demonstrated that the spatial distribution patterns of
H. tibetana
are primarily governed by the combined effects of key environmental factors, including elevation gradient, annual precipitation variation, and mean annual temperature fluctuation. Modeling results demonstrate that
H. tibetana
currently occupies 157.62 × 104 km2 of suitable habitats, showing high concentration in three key zones: (1) Qinghai's eastern‐southwestern belt, (2) Gansu's southeastern/Sichuan's western‐southeastern corridor, and (3) Tibet's eastern‐southwestern quadrant. Under future climate scenarios, with increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, the suitable habitats for Hippophae are generally expected to expand northeastward, particularly in high‐altitude and northwestern regions where the environment becomes more favorable. However, in some extreme climate scenarios, significant changes in temperature and precipitation could have negative effects on the growth and expansion of Hippophae. The study suggests that climate change may drive
H. tibetana
to expand into more suitable areas, but it may also lead to the reduction or migration of suitable habitats in some regions. Therefore, future ecological conservation and planting plans for Hippophae should fully consider the impact of climate change and adopt flexible adaptive management strategies to ensure its sustainable development in the context of climate change.

This study used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software to predict the suitable habitat distribution of Hippophae tibetana under contemporary and future (2050s, 2070s) climate scenarios. By analyzing the relationship between the geographical distribution of Hippophae tibetana and bioclimatic factors, the study found that the main factors limiting the distribution of Hippophae tibetana include altitude, precipitation, and temperature.