# Range-wide assessment of habitat suitability for jaguars using multiscale species distribution modelling

## TL;DR

This study identifies key habitats for jaguars across their range using GPS data and environmental factors to guide conservation efforts.

## Contribution

The study uses the largest jaguar GPS dataset to model habitat suitability at multiple scales, revealing new conservation priorities.

## Key findings

- Jaguars prefer productive habitats near water and avoid human-modified areas.
- Jaguar Conservation Units and Protected Areas cover most suitable habitats but represent only a third of the range.
- Non-designated lands hold a significant portion of suitable habitat despite covering a small area.

## Abstract

Jaguars (Panthera onca) are highly sensitive to persecution, habitat loss, and fragmentation, making the identification of suitable habitat critical for conservation planning. Using GPS telemetry data from 172 individuals across eight countries – the largest jaguar dataset to date – we developed multiscale Resource Selection Functions (RSFs) incorporating 15 environmental covariates to model habitat suitability across the species’ historic range. Jaguars selected productive habitats near water and strongly avoided human-modified landscapes, including areas with high human population density and livestock presence. The resulting habitat suitability surface showed strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.88; Boyce Index = 0.91) and correlated with known density estimates and distribution models. Jaguar Conservation Units (JCUs) and Protected Areas (PAs) contained 68.7% and 53.9% of predicted suitable habitat, respectively, while occupying only a third of the range. Non-designated lands, though comprising just 4% of the range, held nearly 10% of total suitability. The Amazon and Mayan Forests were identified as core strongholds, while ecoregion-based modelling revealed additional areas of high suitability in the Pantanal, Gran Chaco, Cerrado, and coastal Mexico. While Brazil encompassed the largest extent of highly suitable habitat, countries such as Paraguay, Argentina, and the United States gained conservation relevance under the ecoregion-stratified scenario.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-025-30512-5.