Risk network analysis and simulation research in municipal engineering projects contracted by China in Saudi Arabia

TL;DR

This paper introduces a risk network model to help Chinese contractors manage risks in municipal projects in Saudi Arabia, improving project completion rates.

Contribution

A novel four-type risk classification framework and system dynamics simulation for risk response strategies in international engineering projects.

Findings

34 risk factors were categorized into four types using network analysis.

Tailored risk strategies increased project completion rates from 77% to 90.5%.

The model helps Chinese contractors understand and control risks in Saudi Arabia.

Abstract

This study develops a risk network model using social network analysis (SNA) to address the complex interdependencies among risk factors in municipal engineering projects contracted by Chinese firms in Saudi Arabia. The four-type risk classification framework (Types I-IV) was introduced to categorize risks based on their network positions and characteristics. A case study of a large-scale municipal project was conducted, and the results showed that 34 risk factors were classified into 4 Type I risks, 2 Type II risks, 17 Type III risks, and 11 Type IV risks. Based on the network analysis, tailored preemptive and post-emergency response strategies were formulated for each risk type. Furthermore, a system dynamics simulation was employed for scene analysis of the proposed strategies. The simulation results demonstrated a significant improvement, with the project completion rate increasing from 77 to 90.5% after implementing the targeted risk responses. This work provides a systematic approach for Chinese contractors to understand risk propagation mechanisms and select optimal control strategies, thereby enhancing project success in the Saudi Arabian market.

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